Ferrari's 2016 options: Contenders to partner Sebastian Vettel

It’s hardly the sport’s biggest secret, but Kimi Raikkonen is currently fighting for his Ferrari – and F1 – future as the 2016 season reaches its mid-point.

The scrutiny on the former world champion has intensified ahead of next weekend’s Hungarian GP following an explosive report in the Italian press claiming Ferrari have agreed a €12m buy-out deal with Williams that would see Valtteri Bottas replace his compatriot.

However, while Bottas was already considered the favourite for the seat were Ferrari to drop F1’s oldest driver, it is understood the Williams man hasn’t signed a 2016 deal – and in F1 no driver move can be taken for granted until the ink is drying on a contract and an official announcement is made.

So, while Bottas appears to be moving closer to a switch, it doesn’t necessarily mean that it will be the 25-year-old who is lining up next to Sebastian Vettel next season. We assesses the chances of all the apparent contenders – including Raikkonen himself – as 'silly season' kicks into gear.

Valtteri Bottas

If Williams' highly-regarded flying Finn wasn't already considered the leading alternative to Raikkonen, then he certainly should be now. 

Ten years younger than his world championship-winning fellow Finn, the former GP3 champion has established himself over the last 12 months as arguably the man next in line for one of F1’s top drives. Although the 25-year-old went on the record in May to suggest “I don’t have anything for next year”, it's understood Williams do have an option on his services for 2016 – the clause which is at the heart of the Grove team's supposed negotiations with Ferrari. 

According to reports ahead of the British GP, the Scuderia had sounded out Williams by offering £5m to buy out that option – but the ever-canny Sir Frank Williams was holding out for up to four times that amount. Losing Bottas would be a blow at any price, but the one upside of letting him go at the end of this season – and not 12 months further down the line – is Ferrari would have at least have to remunerate the team for a driver they’ve nurtured since 2010. 

With such long-standing ties to Grove, Bottas has regularly spoken of the loyalty he feels towards his colleagues, but the chance to join Ferrari is one few drivers would pass up. While his CV currently doesn't compare to Raikkonen's, F1 is all about tomorrow and Bottas's case is certainly helped by the fact he now sits a point ahead of the Ferrari incumbent in the standings, despite missing the Melbourne season-opener and driving a slower car for much of the season.

While his qualities – fast, calm under pressure, unlikely to rock the boat – are plentiful, one question mark Ferrari’s management may have against Bottas at the moment is his form relative to Felipe Massa, a driver who they have chapter and verse on from his near decade at Maranello and dropped two seasons ago. Turning the tables on 2014, it's Massa who currently leads their qualifying head-to-head and the 34-year-old has finished ahead in the last two races. But Ferrari also know how good Massa can be and therefore may look on the head-to-head more favourably than some.

Daniel Ricciardo

Before the Bottas to Ferrari rumours intensified, Red Bull's Daniel Ricciardo had been thrust into the frame as a possible alternative option. Could Ferrari really lure away Red Bull’s prized driver asset for the second successive year? The pros for Ferrari of signing the likeable Aussie are obvious: Ricciardo, unlike Bottas or Hulkenberg, is an F1 race winner, he’s a marketer’s dream and, perhaps most compelling of all if you’re Ferrari, he comes from Italian heritage and speaks the language.

But even if they decided the 26-year-old was the man they wanted to bring to Maranello, prising Ricciardo from Red Bull would be easier said than done. Unlike Vettel, who had cleverly negotiated a break clause into what turned out to be his final Red Bull deal, Ricciardo is thought to be locked into Milton Keynes until 2018. “His situation is very, very clear and anything regarding him being anywhere else is purely futile speculation,” remarked a confident Christian Horner to Sky Sports when the subject of his driver’s future was put to him at Silverstone.

While Ricciardo hardly tried to throw Ferrari off the scent when he spoke to the media recently - “I’ll never rule anything out completely as I don’t have experience with contracts” – the contractual cards certainly appear more stacked in Red Bull’s favour this time around.

Even without that being the case, there’s still the question of whether Vettel would welcome a swift reunion with Ricciardo given he suffered a reputation-damaging beating by the Australian in their single season together at Red Bull. Then again, the pair did get on well last year, Vettel clearly has his mojo back at Ferrari, and stranger things have happened in F1. Just look at the driver market last year.

Nico Hulkenberg

Having been passed over by Ferrari two years ago when they decided to bring Raikkonen back from Lotus, it might seem odd that the now 28-year-old Hulkenberg could be back on Ferrari’s radar when the German’s form remains as quietly impressive as it was back then. The F1 driver market can often be a fickle old world, however, and what has certainly gone for ‘the Hulk’ in the intervening period is the wholesale change in management at Maranello and, undoubtedly, the kudos he has earned for winning the prestigious Le Mans 24 Hours last month.

After a strangely low-key start to this season, the German’s Force India results have also picked up either side of his sportscar success and he has finished in the top eight in each of the last three races. He has openly admitted his confidence has received a boost from that run and therefore there might not be a better moment for Ferrari to finally take a punt on the nearly man of F1.

What might count against him this time is actually his nationality - or, to put it more squarely, the fact he shares the same country of birth as Vettel. Having two German drivers in the same team would inevitably narrow marketing opportunities for F1’s most famous team and biggest brand, although Ferrari have nonetheless fielded three all-French line-ups in the not too dim and distant past (Prost/Alesi in 1991, Arnoux/Tambay in 1983, and Tambay/Pironi in 1982). What is almost certain though is that Hulkenberg, having been on the verge of a breakthrough from F1’s midfield for several years now, would jump at the chance to finally have a shot at the big time.

Kimi Raikkonen

And then, of course, there is Raikkonen himself. Ferrari team principal Maurizio Arrivabene has repeatedly stressed that “the future of Kimi is in the hands of Kimi”, with the feeling being that Raikkonen lifts his game when he is placed under pressure. The results of that psychology have certainly been mixed so far.

Armed with a far superior car to 2014 which, crucially for Raikkonen, provides a more responsive front-end, the Finn has shown flashes of his best form – particularly in Bahrain, where he probably would have won had the race been a few laps longer. But there have been costly errors too, particularly recently, with a spin in Canada and first-lap crash in Austria followed by a premature tyre switch when the rain started coming down at Silverstone.

None of those incidents would have helped the Finn’s cause, particularly as Vettel has been a near model of consistently all season. Despite turning 36 in September, F1's anti-establishment star has at least made clear he still enjoys racing and wants to continue with Ferrari into 2016 – and his idiosyncratic style continues to endear him to fans the world over. Indeed, the recent GPDA survey found him to be the sport’s most popular driver.

But whether that goodwill towards F1's oldest driver extends to the new management team at Ferrari which has already shown its ruthless streak appears increasingly doubtful. If time hasn't already run out for Kimi, then his performances at Hungary and Spa – two races where he has traditionally performed strongly – will likely either make or break the rest of his Ferrari career.