Three days of pre-season testing in Bahrain have whetted the appetite for F1 2021 start as Mercedes say they are playing catch-up to 'different animal' Red Bull; And are McLaren closing in on top two?
Monday 15 March 2021 11:08, UK
Mercedes don't always light up the timesheets at pre-season testing - even before their most dominant of F1 campaigns - so to see the world champions finish in Bahrain as the fifth fastest team isn't a particular surprise, or cause for concern.
But what you do expect from an F1 juggernaut that has been relentlessly fast and polished over the last seven seasons is for them to hit the ground running. And Mercedes most certainly haven't done that.
"Mercedes have got very high standards for themselves, and by their standards, it hasn't been a good test," said Sky F1's Martin Brundle of the Brackley team, who - not helped by a gearbox glitch on Day One - finished bottom of the lap count and struggled to optimise the balance of the new W12 car described as "snappy" and "unforgiving" by their drivers.
Red Bull, meanwhile, so often playing catch-up to start their title challenges with either reliability or handling issues, have enjoyed what is probably their most successful F1 testing since the Mercedes streak began.
This isn't to say Mercedes - whose long runs were much more competitive than their low-fuel laps - and Red Bull's contrasting three days means the pecking order will be flipped once the season commences in two weeks. But what we can surmise from testing is that it should be a lot closer between F1's top two.
"They're looking strong," said Lewis Hamilton, who uncharacteristically spun his Mercedes twice in three sessions, of Red Bull. "They're going to be a different animal this year."
Hamilton was not just talking about the impressive, planted RB16B car or Max Verstappen, who pumped in the fastest time of the test late on Sunday, but also Sergio Perez, the new signing who seems to have settled in well.
"Having seen them win the last race [in 2020], you can only assume they're going to be right there, if not at the front, of the first race [of 2021]," continued Hamilton. "It's going to be a great long battle with them through the year."
Andrew Shovlin, Mercedes' trackside engineering director, put it like this: "We can see from the data we've collected over the last few days that on race pace, we're not as quick as Red Bull.
"The lower fuel work was a more confusing picture, we didn't gain enough and we need to go and look at our approach as far too many cars were ahead of us on pace today. We've had issues in recent years with pace in winter testing and managed to make good progress before the first race but we may have our work cut out this time."
Mind games? Possibly. But Red Bull couldn't have asked for a much better test.
"I genuinely think this is the first time since the start of the V6 hybrid era where if Max put it on pole and won the first race, it wouldn't be a shock," commented Sky F1's Karun Chandhok.
"I'm not saying it's expected, but they're going to be in the fight, I think."
Carry-over cars they may be in Formula 1 this year, but McLaren had more reason to be cautious than most over the winter, given they've faced the not-insurmountable task of integrating a brand new Mercedes engine into a chassis originally designed for a Renault powertrain well over a year ago.
They were out on track with the new MCL35M for a Silverstone shakedown as early as mid-February - two weeks before Ferrari's car was even launched, for instance - but any worries about reliability were quickly dispelled.
They therefore arrived in Bahrain well prepared and it quickly showed out on track and on the stopwatch with both Lando Norris and new star signing Daniel Ricciardo.
But what hadn't been shown in any great pictorial detail at either the launch, or the filming day, was the rear of the car - and now it's clear why. As well as impressively intricate floor detail following the sport's change in regulations to reduce rear downforce, the car's innovative diffuser design proved the technical talking points of the test.
In general, Sky F1's Ted Kravitz believes McLaren are "really are sitting pretty" heading towards the first race and a season when their target is further closing the gap to the top two teams.
"They don't imagine they're faster than Red Bull or Mercedes, but they think they're closer - much closer than previous seasons," said Kravitz.
McLaren, as you'd expect, are staying cautious - but there appears to be optimism about what lies ahead in 2021.
"Things have gone well," acknowledged Lando Norris. "I want to say we're a little bit more confident than we were last year."
Team boss Andreas Seidl stressed: "Once again, the competition is looking very tight between the teams. The stability of the regulations makes it likely that we're in for another close season of Formula 1, with plenty of battles ahead."
Ferrari have provided major storylines in testing for the past two years; in 2019 because of how fast they were, and in 2020 because of how surprisingly slow they were. As F1's most famous team accept it will take time to fight their way back from the midfield towards the front, 2021 was always going to be a quieter pre-season.
There's no early sign they have broken out of that middle pack but testing still provided reasons to be positive for the Scuderia. Not only did Carlos Sainz clock the third-fastest time late on Sunday; not only are both Sainz and Charles Leclerc happy with the new car's handling; but Ferrari believe they are finally finding speed on the straights again - the crippling weakness during their worst season in four decades last year.
"We said it was important for us to address the speed on the straight and that's not only engine power, it's the drag of the car," said Mattia Binotto. "I think if we look at our speed, it has certainly improved compared to last year relative to the competitors. It doesn't seem to be such a disadvantage."
It's impossible to say whether Ferrari, whose engine also appeared reliable with Alfa Romeo joint top of the mileage charts, will be higher up the grid come the season-opening Bahrain GP, but this was a step in the right direction.
The full return of the Aston Martin name to Formula 1 has been one of the big, feel-good stories of the year so far and expectations are that the former Racing Point team will build on the strong foundations of last year, when they won a race and took the fight with McLaren for third in the standings all the way to the final race.
Upgraded with the renowned 2020 Mercedes rear suspension, while using their development token spend on chassis changes, Aston Martin nonetheless clearly didn't complete as much mileage with the AMR21 as they would have liked. The team's lap count was compromised by technical problems across the weekend with a gearbox issue on Saturday and turbo problems on Sunday.
Sebastian Vettel, their blockbuster winter arrival, completed the fewest laps of any race driver (117) although said that "given the hiccups we had" the laps count was "more than we expected". In any case, they were still ahead of Mercedes and not far behind McLaren on mileage.
"Overall I'm positive," concluded Vettel, who continues to acclimatise to his new team and car. "Probably it's impossible to say because we didn't conclude all the running to really compare in terms of performance with others but it looks to be very tight and hopefully we'll be in the mix and have some fun."
Quite where in the midfield Aston Martin will find themselves on the season's first grid remains uncertain, particularly with McLaren looking strong and AlphaTauri, second quickest on the final day, appearing to make a clear step forward with a fast and consistent car.
Alpine have looked fantastically reliable, if not yet revealing any obvious headline-grabbing pace. Ferrari, as mentioned, will also be aiming to be a more competitive force within this closely-matched pack. Alfa Romeo and Williams too both appear upwardly-mobile.
Two years after he was last a Formula 1 driver and, perhaps even more impressively, less than a month after fracturing his jaw in a cycling accident, Fernando Alonso settled seamlessly back into the sport at testing.
Described as "metronomic" and "incredible" with his consistency by Sky F1's Karun Chandhok, Alonso gave Alpine, who opted not to join their midfield rivals in true performance runs, just what they wanted from their pre-season - laps and lots and lots of data.
The two-time world champion insists he's driving better now than he ever has before - and there's no reason to disbelieve him.
Another driver to certainly look out for - and at the other end of F1's age spectrum - is Yuki Tsunoda, who was frequently lighting the timing boards up purple on Sunday evening in AlphaTauri's handy AT02.
"There's something fiery about him, I like him," said Brundle of the rookie, who will become the first driver to have been born in the 21st century to start a race in two weeks' time.
