Mercedes out in front but are there reliability concerns?; What are Red Bull holding back? And what now for McLaren...
Friday 17 March 2017 12:03, UK
The strongest, most irrefutable conclusion from the first pre-season test is a statement of the glaringly obvious: Mercedes once again look very, very formidable.
The Silver Arrows juggernaut dominated at the Circuit de Catalunya, setting the two fastest laps and completing more mileage than any other team. The rules may have changed but the team in front probably hasn't.
"A team that strong and with that resource will relish change," new F1 supremo Ross Brawn told Sky Sports. "It was naive to think it would destabilise Mercedes. If anything it gave them an advantage."
Sky Sports exclusive: Brawn ready to change Formula 1
But Mercedes were pushed close in the timesheets by a Ferrari team which, at face value, defied pre-season pessimism in Italy.
There is, though, no way of knowing what the teams' true performance actually is. Engine settings, fuel loads and run programmes are a closely-guarded secret, making the timesheets a notoriously unreliable barometer. And Ferrari, who were fastest of all at Barcelona 12 months ago, have a habit of flattering to deceive in winter testing.
Rather ominously, Mercedes led the way in week one - albeit by less than a tenth of a second on tyres two steps faster than the soft compound used by Sebastian Vettel when he set the Scuderia's quickest time - even when focused on building up the W08's stamina. Lewis Hamilton said on Wednesday night that the new Mercedes still hadn't been dialled in or run on low fuel.
Hamilton loving Formula 1 2017
But was it all quite as smooth sailing for Mercedes as it seemed on the surface?
An electrical fault meant Hamilton had to sit out his final morning of action and Sky Sports understands Mercedes have been running their 2017 engine in conservative power modes to be sure of complete reliability.
It's not known if Mercedes have suffered engine component failures on their factory-based test dynos but a team source confirmed that failures are a desirable occurrence - the point about running engines on test beds is so that it happens close to home, where quick and accessible fixes can be applied, rather than on the track
Mercedes will introduce an upgraded engine for the season-opening Australian GP on March 26, meaning that while Bottas and Hamilton's lap times in the W08 are already impressive, there is likely to be even more performance gains to come from the world champions - if the engine is reliable.
All eyes on Red Bull at the second test
Such uncertainties and rumouring are nothing new at testing and week one in Spain was not unusual in throwing up more questions than answers.
But even more intriguing than Ferrari's form, which McLaren described as "surprising", was Red Bull's relative anonymity and the minimalist appearance of their car.
Red Bull: Tough to catch Mercedes
The RB13 ran with very few aerodynamic gizmos attached, prompting many in the paddock to wonder what the former world champions were up to.
"We've tried not to put too many appendages on to the car in the early stages so we understand the flow structures properly and develop the car from there," answered Adrian Newey.
But many in the paddock suspect Red Bull have something up their sleeve and are holding back improvements until the second test to give their rivals as little time as possible to copy their ideas. If so, next week could be something special.
In the meantime, one critical learning from Barcelona week one was that Renault, engine providers of their works team, Red Bull, and, after a year with Ferrari, Toro Rosso, have made giant leaps forwards since the start of F1's hybrid era three years ago. "Renault have turned a huge corner," reported Toro Rosso designer James Key.
McLaren's misery goes on
McLaren and Honda's second marriage still isn't getting any better. A quickie divorce has been ruled out but, fully two years since the renewal of vows, a honeymoon period still hasn't materialised for a partnership which once ruled F1.
Test One bordered on a disaster for the team and the upshot of reoccurring unreliability was second-last place on the timesheets for laps completed and for fastest times posted.
"There's no evidence so far that Honda can deliver, medium to long term, a power level to match Mercedes," noted Sky F1's Ted Kravitz.
But having committed so heavily to the Honda partnership, and gone so far already, there can be no turning back now.
F1 speeding to new heights
We knew F1 2017 was going to be quick and, on the evidence of the Test One timesheets, it's also going to quickly shatter all records.
Three seconds faster than Test One last year, Mercedes and Ferrari have already lapped the Circuit de Catalunya this year in the quickest times seen since the double-diffuser Brawn GP cars of 2009. And that's even before the 2017 beasts get kitted out in something resembling their Australian GP aero specifications for Test Two.
Expect 1:18 laps or, perhaps even a 1:17.
The fastest laps of Formula 1 Testing
The increase in cornering speeds has gone hand-in-hand with tyres from Pirelli which have delivered on the remit of providing a more consistent platform for drivers to push through a stint.
"The hardest tyre I've ever driven," was how Hamilton, a veteran of 11 F1 pre-seasons, described them. The drivers are happy, but will the fans be with the prospect of a return to predominantly one-stop races?
Testing times for Stroll
It's a sign of the exacting standards F1 drivers are held to that of the 110 laps Lance Stroll completed in his first full F1 test it's the two that caused damage to his Williams which made most headlines.
But crashes tend to make headlines, especially two in two days and particularly from a youngster making his F1 debut.
"It's unfortunate, one front wing, a little winglet, but that's Formula 1," the 18-year-old remarked after a spin on his 12th lap of running on Day Two caused minor, but session-ending, damage to the FW40.
The ramifications were even more significant the following day when an afternoon crash into the barriers curtailed Williams' running for not only Day Three, but the rest of the test.
The reigning European F3 champion is undoubtedly a talent and showed flashes of speed too but, ahead of what's poised to be the hardest and toughest F1 season for years, the learning curve remains steep.
