Could Montreal be make or break for Mercedes; Pressure mounting on Palmer; Time for Stroll to walk the walk...
Wednesday 7 June 2017 10:21, UK
From unbeatable to underdogs for Mercedes?
Are Mercedes now really 2017's championship "underdogs", as Toto Wolff suggested after Monaco?
Coming round to such a way of thinking isn't especially easy when you're talking about the winners of 54 of the last 65 grands prix, including three out of six this year. But if Ferrari's comfortable one-two on the streets of Monte Carlo underlined anything, it's that the Scuderia, after almost a decade's wait, are in shape to win anywhere - and, if Mercedes aren't on top of their inconsistent W08 car on any particular weekend, win well too.
When's the Canadian GP on Sky Sports?
Saying that, a victory 'drought' for Mercedes hasn't yet stretched beyond one race for nearly three years now and Canada's Circuit Gilles Villeneuve has proved one of their happiest hunting grounds in that time.
But, with a "diva" of a car to handle, especially on the softest tyre compounds which are again in use in Montreal, the challenge of unlocking the W08's pace for both drivers on a consistent basis remains challenging. Mercedes know they need to find an answer soon to avoid the Prancing Horse's early-season trot turning into a season-long gallop.
Will the seagulls still reside at the first corner?
And is it already a must-win for Hamilton?
One of the more illuminating facts of F1 2017 is that Sebastian Vettel has finished every race so far in either first or second place. It's a stark illustration not only of the recent past - Sebastian's consistency and that of his Ferrari car so far this season - but also the future. Unless something drastic changes, Seb will be a tough nut to crack in this year's Drivers' Championship.
Mercedes' concern was laid bare this week when Niki Lauda felt moved to remark: "Vettel needs to retire at least once, otherwise it's all over." According to Lauda, Vettel's 25-point advantage is already "alarming". That ringing sound you can hear, folks, are the alarm bells going off at Brackley…
So how bad is it for Mercedes? By recent standards, it certainly amounts to something of a crisis. But even in the midst of their slump in Monaco, when Hamilton staggered from the start of Qualy and then fell at the second hurdle, they were still within a tenth of pole. Their bad is still everyone else's very good.
The 2017 Mercedes is quick. But it's also bloody hard work. Toto Wolff's description of the W08 as "a diva" is arguably the most important of the year. She's high maintenance, hard to manage but potentially worth the aggro too. It's the trickiest relationship Mercedes have faced since 2012 and one they are still defining. Curiously, it's Hamilton rather than Valtteri Bottas who has found the W08 the hardest to tame, resulting in a pair of non-performances in Russia and Monaco.
If Lauda is right to assert that Merc already need a Vettel DNF, the flip side must also be true: Mercedes already can't afford another hissy fit from their difficult diva. Montreal may already be a must-win.
Will Palmer's season start before time runs out?
Waiting for Jolyon Palmer's season to start has become F1's Groundhog Day. It has been, hitherto at least, a year of reoccurring nightmares for the Renault driver and unforgiving catch-22s: a mechanical problem followed by a trip to the barriers in the process of playing catch-up.
Still devoid of a single point - team-mate Nico Hulkenberg, by pertinent contrast, has 14 - Palmer came close in Monaco, finishing 11th, but that finishing position was largely a result of retirements further up the road than inspiration. His best moment in 2017 occurred two months ago in Bahrain when he reached Q3 for the first time in his career, but even then he was a second shy of Hulkenberg.
Jolyon needs a change of luck and he needs it fast. Speculation has already taken root with ominous intent that Renault's patience is wearing thin. Given the lack of reliability they have provided so far, Jolyon deserves more time but, ultimately, he's the only person who can provide a convincing case for retention.
How long will Alonso's smile last?
"I'm ready to get back to my 'day job' and go racing in F1 again," declared Fernando Alonso this week ahead of his return to more familiar motor racing ground for the first time in nearly a month.
It's plain that the chance to step out of the disappointing cycle of performance that is McLaren's F1 project for a competitive Indy 500 seat has given Alonso a chance to enjoy his racing again, but how long will that feel-good factor last on his return to F1?
"His smile is big enough, I think it's going to carry him for a little bit," said McLaren's Zak Brown in Monaco. "We're obviously working hard to make sure we're more competitive every race and that's what he wants."
Minus Alonso in Monaco, McLaren missed what the early stages of qualifying showed was a big points-scoring opportunity in the Principality, leaving them pointless and bottom of the Constructors' Championship.
Canada's power straights are unlikely to offer up similar opportunities with engine providers Honda admitting the circuit "will not play to our strengths". Now on the cusp of grid penalties for the rest of the season, F1 2017 may still get worse before it gets better for Alonso.
Can Stroll make a pointed response to his critics?
Conversations about Lance Stroll should come with a sedative supplied. As the youngster remarked in Monaco: "I come from a background that when I win, people try to put me down, and when I lose, people try to put me down. I accept that and I actually find it kind of funny."
Although his critics instantly responded that his form so far this year has been no laughing matter, Stroll may also have a point about the criticism as a whole. The struggle to separate any appraisal of the Williams rookie from the money - and let's be blunt, it's been a lot of money - which has supported his career has unfortunately removed all objectivity from the debate.
For a neutral perspective, try the numbers - be those timesheets or the nascent 2017 standings. And neither make particularly complimentary reading of Lance as he prepares for the unique demands of his first home race. He has yet to score a point and he has yet to out-qualify Felipe Massa.
Lance isn't the first driver to struggle in his first F1 season. But the surprise has been the absence of any heartening glimpses of pace. A one-second gap to the sister Williams has been the norm - and, to be blunt again, it's hardly as if 36-year-old Felipe is currently at his prime either.
Williams have given the 18-year-old their full backing and insisted the criticism has been "grossly unfair". In fairness, that's probably rather unfair to the critics. They have a point, even if has been rather overdone. Lance has underwhelmed so far but by no means disastrously so.
Canada, his home race, will be illuminating for what it reveals about the young man's capacity to cope with pressure and close scrutiny. A stroll won't do; it's time for Lance to walk the walk.
Can Mercedes hit back in the 2017 title fight with Ferrari? Don't miss the Canadian GP live only on Sky Sports F1 this weekend. The race starts at 7pm on Sunday. Watch the race for £6.99 on NOW TV
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