England to edge Grand Slam decider, says Alex Payne

By Alex Payne

Image: Mike Brown in action against Wales. Will he get onto the scoresheet on Saturday?

Alex Payne offers up his predictions for the final round of Six Nations fixtures, with England targeting a first Grand Slam since 2003.

France v England (Stade de France, Saturday 8pm)

There are two ways to look at England's chase for a Grand Slam this weekend. Current form, which favours England, and history which comes down firmly on Les Blues' side.

In terms of the current form, England are obviously delivering wins but there remain some familiar issues that haven't yet been sorted - indiscipline and the failure to put teams away are the most pressing. On the flip side France are two wins from four this campaign, and in truth, they were pretty lucky to beat Italy and Ireland - by two and one point respectively.

But recent results between these two indicate you're going to need your finger nails on Saturday night. Ignoring last year's Six Nations bonanza (you've more chance of winning the lottery than seeing another 55-35 scoreline) the last eight meetings have an average winning margin of just five points.

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Payne's Sky Bet Picks

Agree with Alex? Follow his Sky Bet tips for England's clash with France here.

In the four recent meetings at the Stade de France it is even closer - a winning margin of less than three points with France winning three of them.

And England's history isn't worth clinging to either in these pressure games. One Grand Slam in 20 years, and five Grand Slam failures in the last 16 years. As with this year, all of them have seen England on the road on the final weekend. France will relish the free hit at joining Wales, Scotland and Ireland in pulling down England's party.

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So where to put your chips? I said at the start that I thought England would lose to Scotland but pick up speed to win the title. And I'm going to stick with my belief that England are a side on an upward curve, they are a better team than France and appear ready to finish the job. It is going to be fast, furious and nerve-racking, but I think England will get home by 1-5 at 9/2 with Sky Bet.

Image: Virimi Vakatawa is one of the few positives for France so far

For France: Wingers have been busy with four tries in the last four games with England. Virimi Vakatawa has been one of their pluses this campaign, and is 9/4 to finish with a flourish.

England's hero: The backs have done the damage in recent games against the French, scoring 19 of the last 21 tries. Wingers have scored five in the last three clashes, but England's full-back has scored in seven of the last 10 meetings. Mike Brown will relish the occasion, and is 3/1 for an anytime try.

Ireland v Scotland (Aviva Stadium, Saturday 5pm)

A fascinating game awaits in Dublin between two sides who felt last week was a corner turned but for the loser of this one it will be one step back.

Ireland looked to have regained their spark against Italy, scoring nine tries in the process. Scotland, on the other hand, ended a decade of hurt against the French at a buzzing Murrayfield.

In the recent head-to-head, Ireland have won five of the last eight and absolutely blew the Scots away in the final round last season, but Vern Cotter's men can lay claim to being the most improved side in the tournament this season, and they will certainly not lack for confidence. World Cup warm-ups never tell you the whole story, but the Scots gave Ireland a real hurry up at the Aviva last August that will certainly provide a useful reference point.

Image: Duncan Taylor has been in fine form for Scotland

But I'm not sure the Scots are yet ready for a big win on the road. Home form has been strong this season; if you remove Italy from the equation, England's win at Murrayfield is the only away win between the other five in this year's tournament. Plus, Ireland have seven wins in eight against the Scots in Dublin and just one loss in their last 11 Six Nations games at the Aviva. Tight matches are so often decided by home advantage, so I'm going for Ireland to win by 6-10 points at 9/2.

Scotland's scorers: The visitors have struggled for tries against Ireland of late, averaging just one in the last five meetings. But Duncan Taylor has been a real star for Scotland, and must be running high on confidence. He is 4/1 to score again on Saturday.

Image: Payne is backing Josh van der Flier to score for Ireland

Ireland's inspiration: Ireland's open side has scored three tries in the last two games; a Sean O'Brien double last season and Chris Henry in the World Cup warm up.  Tommy O'Donnell is the new man in this week, and is 7/2 to continue the trend.

Wales v Italy (Principality Stadium, Saturday 2.30pm)

Not a lot to say really, other than Wales at a canter.

Image: Can George North be the tournaments top try scorer in 2016?

The changes in selection renew the hunger levels, Wales have a point to prove and are chasing second place in the standings. Italy look short on ideas and short on energy, and have fallen away badly in the final round recently; they conceded 61 points at home to Wales a year ago, and 52 to England at home the year before. I think Wales could get going, and 35 on the margin feels pretty accurate - I'd be tempted to just duck under though, at 10/11.

North wind: I did tip George North to be the top try scorer in the tournament this season, he's currently level with Jonathan Joseph on three. Last year he scored a hat-trick in Rome, but I'm going for the slightly more cautious North double at 6/5.

Image: Italy centre Michele Campagnaro is Italy's best chance of a try, says Payne

For Italy: the free running Leonardo Sarto has scored in his last two games against Wales and is 7/2 to make it three in three this weekend.

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