Stuart Barnes looks back at another Champions Cup weekend as England lose Billy Vunipola again, while Scarlets shine.
1. Bad news for Billy Vunipola and England. The Saracens No 8 had made a superb return to form from knee injury only to fracture his arm on Saturday night against the Ospreys.
The amiable giant's ball carrying is central to the England team. While Eddie Jones has said he would not rush Vunipola back as he felt he did for the Ireland match last season, the quality of his recent game had all of England certain he would blast his way straight back into the Test team. However, that is now on ice and with Nathan Hughes also injured, England have a distinct problem with their power supply in the back row.
Sam Simmonds has not got the bulk Jones likes from the base of the scrum. In addition, the Exeter man is a contender for the seven shirt that Jones is struggling to fill. It would not surprise me if Jones was to shift Courtney Lawes to the blind side and concoct a back row with Chris Robshaw and Simmonds filling the open side and No 8. Whatever plan Jones comes up with, the loss of Vunipola represents a substantial setback for England's Six Nations campaign.
2. There were plenty of smiles on the western side of the Severn. Like England, Wales also have No 8 issues ahead of the Six Nations with Taulupe Faletau missing but the Scarlets and Ospreys brought the Principality some new year cheer with their efforts last weekend. In particular, Scarlets.
They were stunning; back to their knock-out stage best of last season. Bath had some key men absent through injury but Scarlets were without their back three and Jonathan Davies. It didn't stop them overwhelming Bath with a brand of rugby their President, Phil Bennett, would have loved. Whereas the English side sought contact, the Welsh found space - and exploded into it. I always felt the weather as much as Bath beat them in round two. They will be hoping for clear skies when Toulon turn up in Llanelli on Saturday night for what is the game of round six. On form, and with home advantage, the Scarlets win but Toulon tend not to go down without a fight and will be scrapping tooth and nail for every point in what appears one of the tightest pool stages of them all.
3. Ospreys were nothing like as good but they were tenacious enough to do what the Scarlets managed last season and draw with the European champions. Conditions were poor for running rugby but the game lacked little in the way of drama. Dan Biggar kicked and played with a lot of control and appears in good nick as the Scotland game approaches.
But why did Rhys Webb kick the ball out of play when the Ospreys were in possession going into extra time? Surely he should have kept attacking, hoping for a penalty or getting into position for a drop goal. The draw leaves them having to win in Clermont if they are to qualify for the last eight. That potential three-point swing between them and Saracens would have been huge. A losing bonus point will not suffice next weekend. Webb - who played well otherwise - made a blunder. Nothing but a win in the Auvergne will do. The odds are against them but do not write them off.
4. Saracens looked heavy legged. Eighteen points looks the minimum required to get out of the pool stages (there is a possibility of nineteen points being the cut-off point with Exeter, Toulon, Racing 92, Ospreys, Ulster and La Rochelle all handily placed to clear the eighteen-point barrier as runners-up. The champions and Bath could yet miss out with eighteen points. But enough in the way of hypothesis. It's too tight to call.
5. The one team breezing along without a concern in the world are Leinster. Already guaranteed a home quarter-final, they put fifty-plus points on Glasgow. I know Dave Rennie's team were way short of full strength but the Irish team have the squad depth, the stars, the structures in attack and defence, and a powerful pack.
6. Their great rivals, Munster, may have lost the battle against Racing but they took a step to winning the war for pool supremacy. Racing were a point ahead with a scrum in the shadows of the Munster posts. They were awarded a penalty; the lead a solitary point. A try and conversion would have given them an eight-point lead and flip flopped the top of the pool. Instead, they settled for a penalty to see out the victory and hand Munster advantage. Had it been Munster a point behind, in that attacking position, they would have gone for the pool-winning play. As it is Munster only have to beat Castres at home to finish the job off. They will want the extra point to maximise their chance of home advantage. Expect them to manage that within the hour.
7. Castres enjoyed a 39-0 romp against a shadow Tigers team. Had Leicester sent their full team they probably would have lost. Such is the state they are in and the strengths of the small French club on home turf. It is easy to slate Matt O' Connor for sending a weakened team but he is paid to win trophies and with Europe already gone, one can sympathise with his decision to rest players. He has to target a top-four finish and a shot at the Premiership...unlikely I know but possible, whereas Europe was mission impossible even before round five.
8. In contrast, Northampton and Harlequins did themselves great credit. Both out of Europe, but both produced stunning results. In particular, credit to Harlequins. Wasps were fighting for their European lives whereas Clermont are always prone to the odd horror show away from home, especially when they know a win in round six will see them into the knock-out stages. As for Harlequins, a long way behind with half an hour remaining, they played a thirty-minute purple patch. It was thrilling stuff.
9. Harlequins go to La Rochelle in attempt to spoil the French side's party. The Champions Cup newcomers have come a cropper in the last two rounds but a hard-fought bonus point in Belfast means they could yet sneak a home quarter-final place. If they are to go much further they'll need that advantage. They have been far too naive in their last two games but back at home in front of a full house, another Harlequins win would be something quite special. They kicked off the tournament with a cracker at the Stoop. Who knows what lies in store at the pool-stage denouement?
10. La Rochelle's conquerors, Ulster, are now top of the pool and face a weakened Wasps team. Rory Best set quite some example against La Rochelle. The Ulster men are winning without looking remotely like contenders. They have the guts but not the game to go all the way. I'll take Wasps to beat them next week; a rare win for an English side against their Irish counterparts. It has been a good tournament to date for the Irish and Welsh, but a bad one for the English clubs. Exeter can still buck the trend. Back them for a bonus-point win against Glasgow, to reach nineteen points and make the quarter-finals. We could yet see a Leinster vs Exeter rematch. Stranger things have happened in what is an increasingly strange European season.