PRO12 and Premiership: Final round permutations

By Keith Moore and Tony Tighe

Image: The Scarlets and Ospreys are competing for a third-place finish in the PRO12

We look at what each team needs in Saturday's final round of the Guinness PRO12 and Aviva Premiership regular seasons.

There are semi-final places at stake as well as Champions Cup qualification and play-off spots.

Aviva Premiership (all games kick off at 4pm on Saturday)

Wasps v Saracens

Image: A win for either side would guarantee a home semi-final

This is likely to be a straight shootout to host a home semi-final. However, both sides have more wins than Exeter, so if Saracens lose but claim two bonus points and Exeter get nothing out of their game against Gloucester, then Wasps would finish first, Saracens second and Exeter third.

If Wasps lose but get more bonus points than the Chiefs then it would finish Saracens, Wasps then Exeter.

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Gloucester v Exeter Chiefs

Despite all of the above, Exeter could finish the regular season top of the table. If Saracens beat Wasps then a win for Exeter would be enough to top the standings, and if Wasps win without a bonus point and the Chiefs get a bonus-point win at Kingsholm then Exeter finish top.

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A win of any kind would be enough to host a semi-final, but top spot would mean playing the team in fourth.

Image: Exeter are in search of a home semi-final, while Gloucester want to secure a play-off spot for next season's Champions Cup

If Gloucester win they will finish seventh provided Harlequins beat Northampton - unless Saints pick up two bonus points in a loss and Gloucester don't get a try-bonus point in their win.

If Northampton beat Harlequins then Gloucester can't better their current position of eighth. However, if they beat La Rochelle in the Challenge Cup final a week later, then they will go through to the play-off against the eight-placed PRO12 team regardless of where they finish the Premiership season.

Worcester Warriors v Leicester Tigers

Image: A single bonus point would likely be enough for Leicester to secure fourth place

Any win for Leicester secures them fourth place. A loss could still be enough, depending on how things go for Bath.

If Bath lose then the Tigers finish fourth regardless, and if Bath win without a bonus point then Leicester should in theory have enough to go through as they are 68 points ahead on points difference.

However, if Bath get a bonus point then Leicester will have to get at least one point out of their game to realistically progress.

Sale Sharks v Bath

Image: Bath need a bonus-point win and hope that Leicester get nothing against Worcester

If Leicester lose without any bonus points then Bath could go fourth without the bonus points, but as they are currently 68 behind in points difference, the likely scenario is that they need a bonus-point win and hope Leicester get nothing.

Northampton Saints v Harlequins

Image: Harlequins are in the driving seat to finish in sixth place, but Northampton could leapfrog them in the final round

This one is all about next season's Champions Cup. If Quins win then they will guarantee a Champions Cup spot next season. If Saints win but Quins get two losing bonus points, then Quins still finish sixth.

If Northampton lose then they risk losing out on next season's Champions Cup if Gloucester win either against Exeter on Saturday, or La Rochelle in the Challenge Cup final on May 12.

Bristol v Newcastle Falcons

Image: Newcastle players celebrate Joel Hodgson's try against Bristol

Newcastle have an outside chance of finishing seventh and competing for a Champions Cup spot. If they win with a bonus point, and Northampton lose without picking up any points, and Gloucester are defeated by Exeter and La Rochelle, then the Falcons will sneak into a play-off spot.

Bristol will be heading down at the end of this season unless Ealing or Doncaster win the Championship.

Guinness PRO12 (all games kick off at 5.15pm on Saturday)

Scarlets v Ospreys - live on Sky Sports 2 HD from 5pm

Both teams look set to qualify for the semi-finals with the Scarlets three points ahead of the Ospreys in third place.

The Ospreys require just one match point from their trip to Parc y Scarlets and will qualify regardless of the result if Ulster fail to claim a bonus-point win against Leinster.

Munster and Leinster have already sealed home advantage, although both of these teams registered away wins against Munster this season.

Ulster v Leinster

Image: Ulster require a bonus-point win against neighbours Leinster

Ulster require a bonus-point win over the PRO12 leaders in Belfast and must hope that the Scarlets do them a favour and beat the Ospreys by eight points or more.

Victory for Leinster will secure top spot.

Munster v Connacht

Image: Munster have already secured a home semi-final while Connacht are heading for a Champions Cup play-off

Munster are already guaranteed a home semi-final and victory over Connacht will secure top spot if Leinster lose at Ulster.

Eighth-placed Connacht are guaranteed a Champions Cup play-off. Unless they claim a bonus-point win in Limerick and Cardiff lose without a bonus point they will finish eighth and face Premiership opposition.

Dragons v Blues

Image: Cardiff Blues were 27-16 winners over the Dragons on December 26

A losing bonus point for the Blues will secure seventh place and a play-off against the seventh-placed side in the Top 14 - currently Racing 92.

Should Cardiff leave Virginia Park empty-handed then Connacht can leapfrog them with a bonus-point win at Munster.

Glasgow v Edinburgh

Image: Glasgow hold the advantage heading into their 1872 Cup second leg with Edinburgh

Neither side has anything to play for in terms of the PRO12, with Glasgow sixth and Edinburgh ninth respectively.

However, the 1872 Cup is at stake and Glasgow hold the edge after their 25-12 win at Murrayfield on December 26.

Zebre v Treviso

Image: Zebre and Treviso could finish in the bottom two for the fourth successive season

The PRO12's bottom two sides, who are level on 19 points, collide in Parma with a Champions Cup place at stake.

Treviso have won four games compared to Zebre's three, giving them a slight edge.

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