Neil Reynolds looks ahead to NFL free agency, which begins on March 9

By Neil Reynolds, American Football Expert & Columnist

Neil Reynolds explains which key players could be on the move in the NFL when the free agency begins

Super Bowl LI and that dramatic comeback engineered by the New England Patriots may still be very fresh in the memory, but the 32 teams in the NFL are already onto building a potential champion for the 2017 season.

The new league year begins at 9pm UK time on Thursday, March 9 and signals the opening of a frenzied period of activity known as free agency - which is pretty much transfer deadline day in reverse!

The opening few hours of free agency can be frantic and headline-filled. Last year, the raid on the Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos began with the defection of their starting quarterback, Brock Osweiler, to the Houston Texans.

Before the decision-makers in Denver could catch their breath, they had already lost key defenders in Malik Jackson to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Danny Trevathan to the Chicago Bears.

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The signings come thick and fast on the opening night of free agency but there are many more headlines lurking just around the corner as teams get busy at the official start of the season.

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Two years ago, the opening 30 minutes of the new league year saw New Orleans trade star tight end Jimmy Graham to Seattle, the then St Louis Rams trade starting quarterback Sam Bradford to Philadelphia and the shock retirements of Tennessee Titans quarterback Jake Locker and San Francisco 49ers All-Pro linebacker Patrick Willis.

Image: Two years ago Jimmy Graham was a surprise name traded at the start of the league season

The NFL likes to coin the phrase 'expect the unexpected' when it comes to games being played on Sunday evenings, but the same train of thought can be applied to the beginning of the new league year and the opening of the free agency signing period.

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So here are a few key pointers and questions that could be answered early in the proceedings...

What is free agency?

The free agency signing period is one of the key ways for teams to upgrade their rosters during the off-season. As a reference point, 15 of the 44 starters (34.1 per cent) in Super Bowl 51 were acquired through free agency.

When NFL players have played out their four (or sometimes five)-year contracts, they become free agents. They hit the open market and have the opportunity to reap the rewards during the NFL's spending free-for-all.

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To put it in Premier League terms, if a club like Chelsea failed to agree a long-term contract with Eden Hazard, the Blues star could play out his existing deal and then sign a new one with Manchester City, Liverpool or any other team of his choosing. And Chelsea would receive no transfer fee compensation for that move.

An additional $12m (£9.8m) has been added to the salary cap for each NFL team this season, meaning they can spend up to $167m (£137m) each on their 53-man rosters. Some have more financial wiggle room than others and could be about to spend like crazy. In some cases, teams will overpay in order to grab a player they feel will help them in 2017 and beyond.

The teams have been able to negotiate contract extensions with their own players - and protect one of them via the franchise tag - but if they haven't done so by now, they are likely to let them hit the open market.

Teams can negotiate with the agents of new free agents from 5pm UK time on Tuesday, March 7 and begin signing at 9pm on Thursday. Happy shopping!

Is it a successful way to build a team?

The results of building a team through free agency have been mixed. It is certainly another piece of the puzzle but is rarely successful when desperate teams try to salve their wounds quickly and, often, expensively, through free agency.

Image: Julius Thomas #80 is poised to trade Jacksonville for Miami just a couple of years after a free agency switch

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a case in point because they have been big spenders in free agency in recent years but have already parted ways with some of their big money signings.

In 2015, the Jags signed defensive lineman Jared Odrick to a five-year, $42.5m (£35m) deal, cornerback Davon House to a four-year, $24.5m (£20m) contract, and tight end Julius Thomas to a five-year agreement worth $46m (£37m).

Two years later, Odrick and House have been released by the Jags and Thomas will be traded to the Miami Dolphins as soon as the new league year opens. So for some teams it is definitely a case of 'buyer beware.'

There are, of course, examples of great success. The New York Giants spent more on upgrading their league-worst defence in the opening hours of 2016's free agency signing period than they had done in the previous five years combined. The re-signing of defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul and the signing of defensive tackle Damon Harrison, defensive end Olivier Vernon and cornerback Janoris Jenkins helped them become one of the league's best defences.

Image: Mohamed Sanu was an astute capture for the Atlanta Falcons this time last year

And the Atlanta Falcons received big contributions from free agents such as center Alex Mack and wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel on their way to a Super Bowl appearance in 2016.

Which teams are likely to spend big this year?

Some clubs are going to splash some serious cash because the teams with the most money to spend also have the most holes to fill. Look for teams like Cleveland ($106m (£87m) in salary cap room), San Francisco ($79m (£65m) and Jacksonville ($75m (£62m) to be active and to overpay to entice big names to poor teams.

Image: Cleveland are set for a rebuild and could trade as they seek a starting quarterback

Up and coming teams like the Tennessee Titans ($62m (£51m) to spend in 2017) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($62m (£51m)) will be active as they continue to build a challenger. The Super Bowl champion Patriots tend to let the market die down a little bit before they dip their toe into free agency but with $60m (£49.2m) to spend, they could be more active this year.

Who are the top players available as free agents this year?

There are some massive headline names hitting free agency, such as Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, Kansas City Chiefs rusher Jamaal Charles and two from the New York Jets in wide receiver Brandon Marshall and cornerback Darrelle Revis. But they do not necessarily offer the best value for money at this advanced stage of their respective careers.

Image: Adrian Peterson will perhaps be the biggest name to hit free agency but has he put injury problems behind him

Peterson has played in just 20 games over the past three seasons and was reportedly wanting too much money from the Vikings. But would he offer a discounted rate to play for a contender like Green Bay or New England? And can Charles convince teams that his serious knee injuries are well and truly behind him?

It should also be noted that a pair of Brits could be finding new homes in the coming days as Dallas Cowboys defensive lineman Jack Crawford and Oakland Raiders offensive tackle Menelik Watson are set to hit free agency.

Neil's Top 10 free agents

Calais Campbell (DL) Arizona Cardinals
AJ Bouye (CB) Houston Texans
Alshon Jeffrey (WR) Chicago Bears
Brandon Williams (DL) Baltimore Ravens
Dont'a Hightower (LB) New England Patriots
Kevin Zeitler (G) Cincinnati Bengals
Terrelle Pryor (WR) Cleveland Browns
Stephon Gilmore (CB) Buffalo Bills
DeSean Jackson (WR) Washington Redskins
Tony Jefferson (S) Arizona Cardinals

Could we see any surprising trades early in the new league year?

The Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars have already agreed deals that will send offensive tackle Branden Albert to the Jags and the aforementioned Thomas to South Florida. But still lurking in the shadows is a potential blockbuster trade that could send Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins to the San Francisco 49ers. Stay tuned on that one which has been filling the rumour mills because it would be massive news for both teams.

We should also keep an eye on the Patriots to see if they deal back-up quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and the same could happen with the Cincinnati Bengals and their number two passer, A.J. McCarron. In either case, the Cleveland Browns could be a quarterback-hungry trading partner.

Any other headline moves we should look out for?

Image: Despite being franchise-tagged could Kirk Cousins be the subject of a surprise trade

There may be the odd retirement or two but the biggest piece of news this off-season could come in the form of what the Dallas Cowboys end up doing with Pro Bowl quarterback Tony Romo.

If he is not traded, do they keep Romo on board as a reserve to Dak Prescott or cut him loose and let him choose where to begin the next - and final - chapter of his illustrious career?

If Romo is allowed to walk and pick his next team, keep an eye on the Denver Broncos and the Houston Texans as potential landing spots.

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