NFL 2016: The season so far

By Tom Julian

Image: New England Patriots fans have reason to be cheerful with a route to the play-offs looking very likely

The NFL is full of statistics, analytics and predictions as fans and the media alike attempt to plot their team's route to the Super Bowl. 

Sky Sports has teamed up with Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) to look at the numbers that make up the NFL this season.

What is the outlook for your team?

In short, it's good news if you're a New England Patriots fan. Simulating 50,000 outcomes, footballoutsiders.com have predicted a 99.1 per cent chance of Bill Belichick's side making the play-offs, halfway through the season. 

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The Patriots are 7-1, despite not having had Tom Brady or Rob Gronkowski available for the first four games, and sit alone at the top of the AFC East. Their nearest rival, the Buffalo Bills are three games back and have faltered after winning four games on the spin.

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Image: Rob Gronkowski's return has helped the Patriots to a 7-1 record at the halfway stage

The simulated match results vary on the presence/absence of players, including Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, Bills running back LeSean McCoy and Kansas City linebacker Justin Houston. 

Other teams sitting pretty include the Dallas Cowboys (94.5 per cent likelihood), Atlanta Falcons (84.3 per cent) and interestingly the Seattle Seahawks (84 per cent), who have just one more win than the second-placed Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West. 

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On the other side, the algorithm gives the Cleveland Browns a 0 per cent chance, and it's not much better the San Francisco 49ers (0.3 per cent) or the New York Jets (1 per cent). 

Image: Terrelle Pryor has played at quarterback, running back and wide receiver this season

The Super Bowl hangover is real

After an almost perfect regular season, the Carolina Panthers dominated the post-season before freezing on the biggest stage as the Denver Broncos claimed Super Bowl 50.

Ahead of the 2016 season, hopes were still high in Carolina - Kelvin Benjamin returning and MVP Cam Newton pulling the strings. Seven games in and optimism has all-but evaporated for the 2-5 Panthers. 

Image: The Carolina Panthers have started 2016 slowly, can they overcome the Super Bowl hangover and still make the play-offs?

But is it really their fault, or should we have been expecting this decline? Simply put, returning to the Super Bowl after the disappointment of losing it is an almost impossible task.

Not since the 1972 Dolphins has a team won the NFL's biggest prize after slipping up the year before. Potentially more concerning for Panthers fans is that they could be the first Super Bowl loser to miss out on the play-offs altogether since 2008. A realistic fate for a team at the bottom of the NFC South.

Fifty not out?

A year ago Tom Brady suggested he would play until he was 50, if his body allowed. The Patriots quarterback went on to lead his injury-plagued team to the AFC Championship game where they were beaten by Denver.

Brady has been selected for the Pro Bowl 11 times, and every year since 2009. Despite changes in offensive weapons as well as protection, he is as consistent as ever.

But could he really play until he's 50? Peyton Manning bowed out at 40 and Brady's idol Dan Marino called time on his career at 39. The oldest quarterback to take an NFL snap was 48 year old George Blanda, who was used as a relief QB during the 1975 season. 

Image: Tom Brady wants to play until his 50th birthday, and his meticulous planning may get him close

Warren Moon was still playing regularly for the Kansas City Chiefs in 1998, aged 42, but played just three more games in the following two years before retiring.

Brady will be 40 at the end of this season. He has dietary advisors, personal trainers and sleep schedulers, all of which lend weight to the argument that the four-time Super Bowl winner can continue to be productive into his forties. 

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Year of the rookie quarterback?

It was only last season when NFL fans pondered the future of the quarterback position. Given the advancing ages of Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees among others considered elite, it seemed as though there might be a lack of players ready to step in and replace the elder statesmen.

Fans and critics alike were concerned that Andrew Luck, the highest paid player in the NFL might be on the decline after a year full of injuries, which really only left MVP Cam Newton as the beacon of hope for ascendant quarterbacks.

However 2016 has become one of the more prominent quarterback classes in recent history. Of course that is a judgement after only eight games, and it may be that things don't shake out this way. After all, Robert Griffin III was the most promising QB in his rookie year.

Dak Prescott has emerged, through luck more than judgement as an NFL-ready quarterback after leading the Dallas Cowboys to a 6-1 career start, throwing 176 passes without an interception to start his career, an NFL record.

Image: Dak Prescott has excelled after being thrown into the spotlight in Dallas

Prescott has excelled in his opportunity, following the back injury to Tony Romo which has sidelined him since pre-season. Though critics will claim he is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, the rookie has still made the throws and perhaps more pertinently ran the ball with veteran-like awareness and confidence. 

Another young player outperforming predictions is Eagles passer Carson Wentz. Expected to redshirt his rookie season in Philadelphia behind Sam Bradford, the North Dakota State product was thrown into the limelight following Bradford's last-minute trade to Minnesota. 

Image: Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz is one of six rookies to have started at the position so far this year

The Eagles went 4-0 before losing their last three, but the problems lay outside of the quarterback. Poor receiving talent, as well as conservative play-calling have led to Wentz's decrease in production.  

Six rookies have started at quarterback so far this season, and not one of them is first overall pick Jared Goff. Left on the Los Angeles Rams bench, Goff has watched his fellow draft class take to the field, some through managed opportunity, and others because of necessity. 

Image: 2016 No 1 draft pick Jared Goff (left) is yet to see competitive action despite poor performances from Case Keenum

However it raises the question of value, when the Rams trade the house for a player that they don't believe is ready to start halfway through the season, despite consistently underwhelming performances from the player in front of him. 

Drafting franchise talent is a difficult business, and is much about intangibles - handling a press conference or locker room, as well as the measurable skills like speed and arm strength. Prescott and Wentz are already commanding their teams, locker rooms and playbooks, while the wait for Goff to catch up continues.

0-16?

Hue Jackson is still searching for his first win as Cleveland head coach, after the team dropped a 20-7 half time lead against a poor New York Jets team.

Image: Could Hue Jackson and the Cleveland Browns be the next team to have a winless season?

It was always going to be a rebuilding process as the Browns management spent the summer dismantling the previous regime, selling off talent and collecting draft picks to essentially start over. But did anyone think it would be this bad? 

Injuries haven't helped the franchise, particularly at quarterback where Jackson has already used six different players at the position. The team's starter was ruled out for the season in week one and since then it has been a revolving door of inexperienced rookies and veterans lacking quality.

Image: Kevin Hogan is one of six players who has seen time at QB for the Browns

The 2008 Detroit Lions are the only side in NFL history to have finished a season 0-16, and the similarities are concerning for any Browns fan. A revolving door at quarterback was the start of the issues as the Lions ranked worst in points conceded and 27th on offence. 

Cleveland is currently bottom in total defence and 25th in points scored per game, averaging just three points more than the Chicago Bears who prop up the table. Looking at a challenging schedule against teams all still challenging for the play-offs, it is difficult to see where Jackson turns this one around. 

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