And then there were four! The 2023 NFL season has reached its penultimate week as the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions head into Conference Championship Sunday with a spot at Super Bowl LVIII on the line...
Patrick Mahomes continues his pursuit of a second successive Super Bowl ring, and third in total, while Lamar Jackson remains in search of his first as the NFL's likely MVP. Brock Purdy meanwhile continues his remarkable story as pilot to the Championship-chasing San Francisco 49ers as Dan Campbell's Detroit Lions, arguably the story of the 2023 campaign, look to deliver a long-awaited first Lombardi Trophy to Motown.
AFC
Baltimore Ravens
AFC North division champions - 13-4 regular-season record
AFC Championship Game: vs Kansas City Chiefs, M&T Bank Stadium - live on Sky Sports NFL, KO 8pm, Saturday
Head coach: John Harbaugh is in the middle of his 16th season in charge of the Ravens, 11 of which have seen him reach the playoffs as well as winning one Super Bowl title. He has recorded just two losing campaigns during his time in Baltimore, establishing himself among the NFL’s premier coaches. Harbaugh's Ravens sealed the No 1 seed with the league's No 1-ranked scoring defense as well as the fourth-most prolific offense, his side balancing one of the NFL's most dynamic and flexible attacks with a hard-hitting brand of football tailor-made for the playoffs.
Key player: There is a reason Lamar Jackson has propelled himself into pole position to clinch league MVP. The Ravens quarterback has been every defensive coordinator’s worst nightmare across another dominant campaign in which he has starred as the front man to Todd Monken’s versatile offense, showcasing the best of his pocket poise and precision while remaining the devastating threat with his legs on the move. His arm talent has dazzled and his ground threat has clobbered, lifting him to a career-best 3,678 passing yards and 24 touchdowns to just seven interceptions alongside 821 rushing yards and five scores.
Kyle Hamilton has meanwhile excelled within Mike Macdonald’s ascent to head coaching contention, the second-year safety serving as his defensive coordinator’s multi-purpose asset as everything from bruising box tackler to downfield cover defender to late blitz threat. Geno Stone leads the team with seven interceptions, while defensive tackle Justin Madubuike has exploded in a contract year with a team-high 13 sacks.
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Form guide: The Ravens boast a strong case for having been the NFL’s most consistent team across the course of the season, opening 9-3 before closing out the campaign with a run that included statement wins over the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins to lock in the No 1 seed in the AFC. Their win over San Francisco, in particular, amplified their Super Bowl credentials as Jackson out-duelled Brock Purdy while strengthening his MVP case to set the tone for what they hope becomes a deep and decorated playoff run.
Playoff history: The Ravens have won both of the Super Bowls they have taken part in, the first of those coming in 2000 on the strength of a stellar defense led by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis, who then bowed out of the game after securing a second ring in 2012. Baltimore had won only two playoff games since heading into this season, however, with Jackson in particular enduring a tough time in the postseason in his otherwise exemplary NFL career, winning just once in his five playoff appearances.
Divisional Round: Jackson rushed for 100 yards and two touchdowns on the ground while throwing passing scores to Nelson Agholor and Isaiah Likely as the Ravens overpowered the Houston Texans 34-10 in their Divisional Round matchup on Saturday. Baltimore leaned on the league's best run game as they scored 24 unanswered points in the second half to pull away from their opponents, teeing up a first home AFC Championship Game in the organisation's history.
Super Bowl prospects: Favourites. Here is Lamar's chance to not only win his second MVP award, but take the Ravens to the Promised Land. They have everything they need, and are playing better football than any of the other three remaining teams.
Kansas City Chiefs
AFC West division champions - 11-6 regular-season record
AFC Championship Game: @ Baltimore Ravens, M&T Bank Stadium - live on Sky Sports NFL, KO 8pm, Saturday
Head coach: Andy Reid is into his 11th season with the Chiefs, and this team has known only success since he's been there, winning two Super Bowl titles and missing out on the playoffs just once in 2014 - albeit still securing a winning record at 9-7, the only time his team failed to reach 10 wins.
Key player: Patrick Mahomes, of course. Or could you make an argument for Taylor Swift?! The pop music superstar, dating tight end Travis Kelce, has arguably provided more entertainment while watching on in her box than the Kansas City players have provided on the field at times this year. This usually explosive offense has, for much of the season, failed to get out of first gear, ranking 15th in points per game (21.8) and only just sneaking into the top 10 in terms of yards per game (351.3) Mahomes has tried his best to carry this team on his back but he's been let down by a poor crop of receivers at his disposal, who have made a habit of dropping passes delivered on the numbers. With that said, there have been ominous signs of life of this offense waking up across their two playoff victories. Beware.
The story of the Chiefs' 2023 season has been defense, orchestrated by Steve Spagnuolo through his tormenting disguised coverages and rotated down lineman to muddy the field read of opposing quarterbacks. Trent McDuffie and L'Jarius Sneed have epitomised the physicality and multi-faceted tools of Spagnuolo's unit as slot-jammers and pocket-rushers, while Chris Jones and George Karlaftis remain the disruptive faces of Kansas City's defensive front.
Form guide: The Chiefs won the AFC West division title for an eighth-straight season, with an 11-6 record - the longest active streak in the league and second-longest in NFL history behind only the 11-straight years the Patriots won the AFC East from 2009 to 2019. But it wasn't all smooth sailing for the defending champions this season, heading into the playoffs off the back of five defeats in their last 10 and with their usually so dependable offense faltering.
Playoff history: The Chiefs have made it all the way to the Super Bowl on five occasions, losing to the Packers in the very first Super Bowl, before triumphing over the Vikings three years later… though then came a 50-year drought, one which was finally ended in the 2018 season as Kansas City famously fought back from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat the 49ers 31-20. The Chiefs missed the chance to go back-to-back as they were beaten by Tom Brady and the Buccaneers the following year, but Mahomes would rally the team to their second ring in four seasons with an epic 38-35 victory over the Eagles in Arizona last year.
Wild Card Weekend: The Chiefs breezed into the Divisional Round of the playoffs, handily beating the Miami Dolphins 26-7 in freezing cold conditions at Arrowhead Stadium. Harrison Butker's kicking was clutch despite the testing conditions, and Mahomes ultimately did enough to earn his team the win, going 23-of-41 passing, for 262 yards and one TD, while running back Isiah Pacheco was also impressive, with 89 yards on 24 carries.
Divisional Round: Reid's men inflicted yet another knockout blow to the Buffalo Bills' Super Bowl dreams as they booked their spot in a sixth consecutive AFC Championship Game with a 27-24 victory in Orchard Park on Sunday night.
Bills kicker Tyler Bass squandered a chance to draw the sides level inside the final two minutes when he fired a 44-yard field goal wide to leave the Bills staring at another gut-wrenching playoff exit. Rarely does a matchup between the two AFC powerhouses disappoint, as much remaining true as the sides offered up five lead changes in the latest instalment of their rivalry - the final one proving decisive as Isiah Pacheco's touchdown run put Kansas City on top for good in the fourth quarter.
Mahomes finished the game 17/23 for 215 yards and two touchdown passes to tight end Travis Kelce, with the pair making NFL history by surpassing Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski for the most postseason touchdowns between a quarterback-receiver duo.
Super Bowl prospects: The Chiefs live for the Conference Championship. It's six-straight seasons in which they've hosted the AFC title game. Suddenly, their offense has awoken. Suddenly, Mahomes has kicked into playoff gear. Baltimore will enter Sunday as favourites, but beat the Ravens and it is difficult look beyond the Chiefs going back-to-back.
NFC
San Francisco 49ers
NFC West division champions - 12-5 regular-season record
NFC Championship Game: vs Detroit Lions, Levi's Stadium - live on Sky Sports NFL, KO 11.30pm, Sunday
Head coach: Kyle Shanahan is considered one of the most influential head coaches in the league, and perhaps the game's greatest offensive mind, with his team again ranking towards the top of the league - second in total offense (398.4 yards per game) and third in scoring (28.9 points per game). This is San Francisco's fourth trip to the postseason in the past five years under Shanahan, with each of the prior trips taking them to the NFC Championship game (at least), though he is yet to win a Super Bowl for his efforts. Is this the year?
Key player: It's hard to pick, with this 49ers squad loaded with top-tier talent. That said, the two names certainly getting the most buzz as potential league MVPs are quarterback Brock Purdy and running back Christian McCaffrey.
This offense runs through McCaffrey, illustrated by his 2,023 total yards from scrimmage and 21 TDs, which included one in an NFL joint-record streak of 17 consecutive games, dating back to last season. Purdy, meanwhile, has been sensational in his sophomore season, the former seventh-round draft pick ranking third in the NFL in passing touchdowns (31), first in passing yards per attempt (9.6) and passer rating (113.0).
On the other side of the ball, Fred Warner continues to preach of the value in acquiring elite off-ball linebackers in the modern NFL as one of the most gifted operators in his position and one of the heartbeats of Steve Wilks' defense. Leading the way up front is star pass rush Nick Bosa, who led the team with 10.5 sacks during the regular season.
Form guide: The 49ers were cruising as one of the hottest teams in the NFL, with many tipping them as favourites to win the whole thing - that is until they were punched in the mouth with a 33-19 loss at home to the Ravens in Week 16 in a possible Super Bowl preview matchup between the two respective No 1 seeds.
Playoff history: The 49ers are one of the most successful franchises in Super Bowl history, with their five wins placing them level with the Cowboys and seeing them bettered only by the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots (both six) - and Tom Brady's seven! That said, San Francisco last tasted success nearly three decades ago in the 1994 season, and have lost their two trips since - to the Ravens in 2012 and to Mahomes' Chiefs in 2019. They very nearly made it back to the big dance in each of the last two years, only to lose out in back-to-back NFC Championship appearances, to their division-rival Rams in 2021 and the Eagles last year as they lost Purdy to an early injury.
Divisional Round: McCaffrey scored a touchdown with 1.11 remaining before Dre Greenlaw snagged a decisive interception as the 49ers swerved an upset to snatch a 24-21 victory over the Jordan Love-inspired Green Bay Packers to reach the NFC Championship Game.
George Kittle's second-quarter touchdown was enough to give the 49ers a slender 7-6 lead at half-time in the pouring rain of this Divisional Round clash at Levi's Stadium, with two field goals from Anders Carlson accounting for the Packers' points. The game exploded into life during a wild third quarter that saw Love give the Packers a 21-14 advantage with touchdown passes to Bo Melton and Tucker Kraft either side of McCaffrey's 39-yard house call.
With the game on the line, Purdy demonstrated tremendous poise to lead a 12-play 69-yard drive culminating in McCaffrey's go-ahead run to edge the 49ers towards victory.
Super Bowl prospects: The 49ers, by way of another sublime Love-led Packers performance, were unconvincing during their Divisional Round matchup. But yet again the depth of their offensive weapons teased the ability to turn a game in a flash, with all eyes now on whether Deebo Samuel will be fit to play after exiting the game. On paper, they are favourites to see off the Lions and return to the Super Bowl. Games aren't won on paper, and Detroit are riding the momentum of a sparkling season.
Detroit Lions
NFC North division champions - 12-5 regular-season record
NFC Championship Game: @ San Francisco 49ers, Levi's Stadium - live on Sky Sports NFL, KO 11.30pm, Sunday
Head coach: Dan Campbell certainly got everyone's attention when, at his introductory press conference with the Lions in 2021, he said, among other things: "This team's going to be built on: we're going to kick you in the teeth, and when you punch us back… we're going to bite a kneecap off."
Campbell's kneecap-biters took a while to work up an appetite, returning a 3-13-1 record in his debut campaign, before a 1-6 start to 2022 had him firmly on the hot seat. Eight wins followed over Detroit's final 10 games of that season - the team agonisingly falling short of a playoff spot - and the Lions have only built on that further in 2023, claiming a first division title in 30 years under his stewardship.
Key player: The fulcrum of this Lions team, certainly their defensive unit, is second-year standout Aidan Hutchinson. The sophomore star recorded 11.5 regular-season sacks this year following the 9.5 the Michigan alumni registered in his rookie campaign, while he also has a pick to go with the three he logged last year.
On the offensive side of the ball, Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to be one of the league's most underrated receivers, despite returning career highs of 119 receptions, 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns this season, while there are few better one-two punches at running back than David Montgomery (13 rush TDs) and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (11 total TDs).
Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has meanwhile asserted himself as a star of the future with 86 catches for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns as a chief component to Ben Johnson's dynamic Lions offense.
Form guide: It couldn't be much better. This year represents the first 12-win Lions season in over three decades, since 1991...
Playoff history: Little to speak of, to be frank. The Lions are one of only four NFL teams - along with the Browns, Jaguars and Texans - to have never reached a Super Bowl before, let alone won one. Not only that, but in the Super Bowl era (since 1966), this is only the 13th time Detroit have made the postseason. And, of those prior visits, they've won just the one playoff game - a divisional round clash with the Cowboys in that 1991 campaign!
Wild Card Weekend: The Lions won a playoff game for the first time in 32 years as they battled past the Los Angeles Rams to edge their Wild Card clash 24-23. Montgomery and rookie Gibbs each rushed for first-quarter touchdowns to see the Lions race out of the blocks and into a 14-3 lead either side of a Brett Maher field goal for the Rams.
LA roared back into the contest with two second-quarter scores, the first of which was a stunning 50-yard deep ball TD from former Lions QB Matthew Stafford to Puka Nacua. After Goff found his own favourite first-year target in tight end Sam LaPorta for a two-yard TD, Stafford found the end zone again - this time Tutu Atwell running it on from 38 yards - to see Detroit's advantage cut to 21-17 by half-time. The absorbing, end-to-end contest that had taken hold in the first half sadly didn't quite catch alight in the same way after the interval, with only field goals added to the score.
Divisional Round: Detroit followed up by booking their spot at the NFC Championship Game with a thrilling 31-23 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers behind another standout display from Jared Goff, who finished 30-of-43 for 287 yards and two TDs.
Tied up at 10-10 at half-time, the Lions came alive in the second half, scoring touchdowns on three-straight possessions to move 31-17 ahead midway through the fourth quarter. The Bucs continued to battle and made it a one-score game again when Baker Mayfield found Mike Evans in the end zone with 4.37 seconds left, only to fail with the two-point attempt.
Derrick Barnes would go on to ice the game with his first career interception to deny the Bucs a dramatic finale and send the Lions to a long-awaited NFC title game.
Super Bowl prospects: Don't let that dismal Lions playoff record fool you, this is a very different Detroit outfit, one more than capable of going all the way, as their season-opening win over the defending champion Chiefs is testament to. They are in the final four, where anybody can win it. Hurdles don't come much more daunting than that of Shanahan's 49ers, though.
Watch the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game this Sunday, with kickoff at 8pm live on Sky Sports NFL; the San Francisco 49ers then host the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game from 11.30pm; watch Super Bowl LVIII live on Sunday, February 11