Return of the back: Is the NFL shifting to a running game?

By James Simpson

Is the pass-heavy NFL making a shift back to a focus on the running game?

At the height of their careers, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte were dominating the league and leading their teams to success.

Over the past few years, there's been a clear shift to pass-heavy attacks. It's partly due to rule changes, and partly to do with an era of outstanding receivers. Either way, running backs have been devalued.

In 2013 and 2014, no running backs were taken in the first round of the NFL draft. Runners who had an offence designed around them were rare. Now, that's changing.

As part of my sit down with Miami Dolphins' running back Jay Ajayi, we discussed the running back landscape. I argued there was a gap that his 2015 class were in a perfect situation to fill.

Advertisement
Miami Dolphins London-born running back Jay Ajayi feels he can improve on his breakout NFL season which saw him named the Dolphins' MVP

"I wouldn't say there was a gap at running back, but there was a sense that the value of running backs was low. Like you said, devalued," Ajayi said.

Is there more of a run-heavy mentality around the league than in recent years?

Also See:

He added: "I definitely feel like the current status of a lot of the premier teams that are doing well in the league, they have great running back play.

"I think that the real people behind the scenes - the coaches and the guys on the team know that to be a great team and to get to where you really want to go, like the Super Bowl or winning the conference and getting in the play-offs, you need great running back play."

You might not need it, but it helps. There's no doubt that quarterback is the most important position on the field, and "defences win Championships", but a dominant running game can be impossible to stop.

He said: "I think it's helped with the talent that's come into the league recently, and think it's upon us to continue that trend of bringing the value back to us and make us be more productive on the field."

Who are those talented players who have come into the league recently?

The current crop

In 2016, 12 players hit 1,000 rushing yards after only seven hit that same mark in 2015. Ezekiel Elliott burst onto the scene, and was only the fifth rookie since 1970 to lead the league in rushing.

Image: Ezekiel Elliott has burst onto the scene

Le'Veon Bell, despite missing four games, totalled 1,884 yards last year and currently has the highest yards from scrimmage per game average in NFL history (with 128.7).

The 2015 class has broken out in a huge way, with Arizona's David Johnson leading the way. Johnson, like Bell, does extreme damage in the passing game along with powerful running, and racked up over 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns for the Cardinals in his sophomore campaign.

Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley, both first-round picks, look like the bell cows on their teams despite the latter's lacklustre 2016. Ajayi is clearly the man in Miami, and multiple 200-yard performances are not enough for him as he's excited to bring his talent to the UK's capital.

While these great players are just getting started, excitement is building for tomorrow's stars.

The special 2017 class

There were 26 running backs drafted in 2017, the most since 2005 and a testament to the depth of talent in the class. The group had top-end talent, and a ton of depth.

Leonard Fournette is one of the most highly-anticipated running backs entering the league in recent years. Hailed as the "next Adrian Peterson" for his powerful, upright running style, the Jacksonville Jaguars will build around the athletic specimen.

One of the most productive college stars ever, Christian McCaffrey broke an NCAA record previously held by Hall of Famer Barry Sanders when he racked up a whopping 3,864 total yards from scrimmage in 2015. He combines outstanding athleticism, nimble feet and NFL-ready receiving ability to offer an all-round skill set.

Image: Christian McCaffrey enjoyed an impressive college career

Dalvin Cook was once neck and neck with Fournette as the top college back, but fell in the draft after questions emerged about his off-field reliability and his overall athleticism (he had a poor showing at the combine). A supreme talent on the field whose smooth style likens to Jamaal Charles, NFL teams might regret letting him slip out of the first round.

Joe Mixon remains the most controversial player in the draft, but easily one of the most talented. In fact, if it wasn't for the shocking incident in which he struck a woman and was banned from Oklahoma for the season, he'd be in consideration as the top back. When Cincinnati selected him in the second round, they knew they would have to deal with a media storm, but they are getting a player who at only 20 years old could start on day one.

Outside of the four backs who look like they can become true number ones, the class was full of players who will carve out specialist roles at the next level, and could even do more. Alvin Kamara is a springy pass-catcher, Samaje Perine is a bowling ball, D'Onta Foreman could be the thunder to Lamar Miller's lightning, and Kareem Hunt can do it all.

The future is bright

We know the 2017 class is good. But in 2018, it could get even better. Penn State's Saquon Barkley is largely regarded as a generational talent, and could even eclipse the likes of Fournette, McCaffrey and even Elliott as a prospect.

Not only might he be the best back in the class, he could make a push for the number one overall pick and at the very least is a Heisman Trophy contender. He provides an astonishing blend of speed, athleticism and power, and has unmatched elusiveness.

Like Barkley, LSU's Derrius Guice has first-round talent, and some analysts even prefer him to the PSU product. NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah sees a little LaDainian Tomlinson in Guice, and also likened him to the unbreakable Frank Gore. He's a more traditional power back who coaches will run into the ground.

In my recent sit-down with Dolphins' running back Jay Ajayi, he offered some advice to younger players coming into the league.

"Having great feet," he said. "Having great balance and patience I think is a big deal for running backs.

"Just that patience, because the game moves so fast and being able to just have good vision and patience and have a good feel for how your line moves and everything, that's the key. Being able to mesh with your O line, that's it."

If they take it on board and continue to improve at the pace of the young group already in the league, we are in for a fun few years of running in the NFL.

Follow the 2017-18 NFL season with us on Sky Sports and through our website skysports.com/NFL also our app for mobile devices and iPad, or follow our Twitter account @SkySportsNFL

The regular season of home and away matches run from September to December 2017, culminating in PlayOffs from January 6, 2018 and the Super Bowl on February 4, 2018 at the U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota to determine the world champion.

Outbrain