The Milwaukee Bucks have proven they are a regular-season juggernaut but they still have questions to answer in the playoffs, says Sky Sports NBA analyst Mike Tuck.
When the season was suspended in March, Giannis Antetokounmpo's development remained on a steady incline and he had proved, again, that he can get the job done in the regular season. The Bucks were on track for 65+ wins when the regular season was suspended on March 11.
But I also think some pressure was mounting on the team. The next step, for Giannis and the Bucks, is to prove they can now get it done all the way through the playoffs after they failed in that regard last season. The season hiatus has definitely thrown a spanner in the works. We don't know what kind of shape the Bucks, or any team, will be in when the season restarts.
Knowing Giannis and his work ethic, I would say with confidence he will come back as hungry as ever but one man can't win you a championship, it takes a whole team. The Bucks first games back will be very interesting to see. Can they restart at the pace they were going at before the break?
The Bucks are a small-market team and, even with the huge success they have had over the last couple of years, that means some people will always overlook them. They have heard doubts from the start of the season after they lost Malcolm Brogdon in the summer. Some people said they wouldn't be as good defensively and that they wouldn't be as organised on offense. I thought that reaching the Eastern Conference Finals last season could have been a peak for them.
But here we are in June and Milwaukee have the league's best record (53-12), best defensive rating (101.6 points allowed per 100 possessions) and a league-best net rating (10.7). The roster is different to last season but they have still managed to once again build a very strong team around Giannis.
Khris Middleton has been extremely stable through this season, if not building on what he did last year. He is a consistent 20-plus point guy per game (21.1 PPG). Guys like Wesley Matthews, Donte DiVincenzo - when he has been given a chance, George Hill, the Lopez brothers... there have been opportunities for all of them this season and they have all stepped up when other players have been absent due to injuries.
The Bucks front office has done a great job. I really like the way they handle business over there. Their general manager, Jon Horst, is a younger guy but he has a really good head on his shoulders. With the new arena there and the way they continue to build around Giannis, they have a really good business plan and infrastructure there. The only thing they are missing is the title.
One Bucks game that really stood out to me this year was on February 25, a road game against the Raptors. It was two-thirds of the way into the season and Milwaukee came into Toronto on the second night of a back-to-back set of games. It was the first time they had been back in Toronto since the Raptors eliminated them from the 2019 playoffs. That would have been playing on their minds when they walked into the gym but the Bucks ground out a victory, despite the team not shooting really well.
For me, that was a huge win. When it gets late in the season, you want to prove yourself and beat teams that have beaten you before. The Bucks defense won them that game. They locked down Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka really well, holding them to a combined 4-of-27 shooting.
That's the thing with the Bucks. They have a mega-superstar in Giannis who is so exciting to watch. They play good team basketball and they are well-coached. But it is the defense that is the most impressive thing, and defense will win you championships.
No one can doubt the Bucks as a regular season team, but the playoffs are a different beast. It takes a different mentality. And there is still a lot of weight on the Bucks when the season restarts. The Bucks have some playoff experience but teams like Toronto and Boston have just as much, if not more. Would I back them to erase last season's disappointment and reach the Finals this time around? To me, it remains unknown. I'll believe it when I see it.
Can they be successful in the playoffs with this group? If they can't, it would be Giannis' second deep playoff run that didn't result in a championship. I know he has expressed the desire to finish his career in Milwaukee, but ring-chasing can become a real thing. As a player, you realise your shelf-life is limited and you have to make the most of what you have.
When you have teams like Golden State, Toronto and the Lakers tapping on your window - and with a huge contract on offer - it could start to appear very appealing. Giannis will be looking for that supermax contract in 2021. What would it take to say I think he'll definitely stay in Milwaukee? I think they would have to win the title.
Saying that, right now, I don't see him leaving just yet. He has spent a lot of energy building things up in Milwaukee, his brother is on the team and he has started a family in Milwaukee. He has a lot of roots in Milwaukee and seems like a really loyal guy.
But it's the NBA and you never really know. Look at the last two offseasons and the number of big moves that have been made.
The financial state of the league heading into next season - the salary cap may drop significantly due to the league's loss of income because of the coronavirus pandemic - might have an effect. A reduced salary cap would put give the Bucks an advantage over other teams in ultimately re-signing Giannis to a new deal.