In the era of no centers, the Nuggets seem to be succeeding best with two. Mark Deeks examines how the Denver Nuggets are swimming against the NBA tide.
It is not news that the NBA has undergone something of a positional revolution, but perhaps it would be more accurate to describe it as a positionless revolution.
The trend in recent seasons has been to move towards length and athleticism at every position, for the wider promulgation of switching defenses, and for even the tallest players to be able to handle and dribble away from the basket. Post-up offense has not been entirely removed, but it is a tertiary option at best for all but a very few.
And if teams are rarely running post-up plays anymore, it follows that there is a reduced need for players who can defend the post. Which, in practice, means fewer large, clunky centers.
What then of the Denver Nuggets, the Western Conference's best team heading into the All-Star break who are having so much success with a two-center line-up?
Denver has some of the best depth in the league after a summer of roster rebalancing. Last season, they had an excess of power forwards - in addition to the Paul Millsap and Trey Lyles pairing that still makes up the bulk of their rotation, they also had the surplus Kenneth Faried, Darrell Arthur and Tyler Lydon, while also finding that both Juancho Hernangomez and Wilson Chandler were better at that position than at small forward.
This season, they are still fairly replete with power forwards. The Millsap and Lydon pairing endures, and although he has yet to play due to injury, Michael Porter Jr is waiting behind them. Despite this, however, Nikola Jokic and Mason Plumlee continue to be the most effective frontcourt pairing for the team.
Of the 40 two-man line-ups the Nuggets have used this season that have at least 300 minutes played together, the Jokic and Plumlee pairing ranks second in net rating with a giant +11.9 mark. For comparison, the Plumlee/Lyles pairing (one which theoretically would combine Lyles's finesse and perimeter game with Plumlee's grunt work and paint defence to good effect) records only a +4.8 rating, while even the Millsap and Jokic pairing comes in at a relatively lowly +10.6.
Most distinctly, the Jokic and Lyles pairing has recording a whopping -10.4 net rating in 260 minutes, by far Denver's worst two-man unit on any area of the court. There is thus a need to try something different, and that means returning regularly to the Plumlee/Jokic pairing that started 15 games together last season.
In part, this need has been due to the injury to, and load management of, Millsap. Managing to play only 38 games last season, Millsap is playing only 26.3 minutes per game this year, his lowest mark in a decade, and his points per game and usage rate are his lowest marks since his fourth season. The 34-year-old veteran is still an excellent all-around player and is resurgent this season after a couple of down years, yet he cannot play the minutes he once did if he is to be as good as he ever was.
But it has also been due to the struggles of Millsap's main reserve, Lyles. An out-of-position Plumlee/Jokic line-up is better by relative standards than a player in his rightful position that is just not playing well, and Lyles is not. Lyles played well last season in Millsap's extended absence, flanking a sweet shooting stroke (38.3 per cent from three-point range) with some solid rebounding and improved defense. However, this year, the shots simply have not gone in (25.4 per cent from three), rendering him a net negative overall.
The pairing with Lyles is the only two-man line-up in which Jokic posts a negative net rating. Lyles aside, Jokic makes everything and everyone better.
In the era of no centers, the Nuggets seem to be succeeding best with two.
While both Jokic and Plumlee are best classified as centers (inasmuch as positional distinctions matter at all), neither player is a pure post. With his excellent ball-handling for his size and elite passing ability, Jokic plays more regularly away from the paint facing the basket as he does standing in the paint with his back to it, while Plumlee has also grown hugely as a high-post passer and dribble hand-off player.
Defying the new orthodoxy, neither shoots well from the perimeter. Jokic hits a few outside jump shots but is one of the most inefficient shooters among the league's regular shooters, while Plumlee's weird release on his shot makes him almost entirely a non-shooter. But both are effective at turning, facing the basket, hitting a cutter and finishing at the rim. It is the most unusual inside/outside pairing the league has, yet on a team of cutters, this is most welcome.
The theory that Lyles would be the complementary spot-up shooter alongside Jokic would only work if Lyles was a good spot-up shooter. Yet this season, that has not been the case, and when Jokic is in the game, this is largely all that Lyles' offensive role consists of. Lyles is a capable playmaker and ball handler in his own right, yet with Jokic alongside him, the ball handling opportunities are minimal. Therefore, although Plumlee is not able to provide the low-dribbles spot-up shooting threat that should fit so well alongside Jokic, nor is Lyles. And if neither can, then the better defensive player gets the nod.
Lyles's decline this season has been emblematic of the Nuggets' reformation that has moved them from fun upstart to true contender. Last year's team ranked sixth offensively but a lowly 25th defensively; this year, they have improved significantly to third on offense and 11th on defence.
That has come in large part from playing Plumlee and Millsap more regularly. As two of the three best rebounders and paint protectors on the team, it is their increased court time that is largely responsible for why the Nuggets have become the best rebounding team in the league.
That said, both the Millsap and Plumlee solutions to the power forward hole seem temporary. In Millsap's case, age and contractual situation (he has a $30.5m team option for next season) limit the future prognosis for him, and although Plumlee's effectiveness alongside Jokic has been too enduring to be a fluke, it is somewhat match-up specific.
Against those teams with elite stretch big options, this two-man line-up is vulnerable defensively, as a drop defense will not be optimal. For all of the power forward options that the Nuggets have cycled through in the Jokic era, they have yet to find the optimum one.
The hope is that a healthy Porter Jr will be it. Beyond the worrying injury lies some truly versatile talent, although this leaves Millsap in a sort of limbo. He is sorely needed this season, a season in which the Nuggets have legitimate title aspirations, yet leaning on him is to run the risk of him wearing down. And relying on Lyles has not worked.
Nevertheless, this is a good problem to have. The Nuggets are very talented and very, very deep, which gives them theoretical match-ups against any form of opponent.
Improved defense stood between them and contention, and they have found it.
At a time when the NBA as a whole has moved one way, Denver has moved the other, and in doing so, they have found a balance they did not have before.