Tour Championship betting preview: Who to back for FedExCup glory

By Ben Coley

Image: Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson both chase FedExCup victory this week

Who will secure FedExCup victory at East Lake? Which player will shine in Germany? Ben Coley runs through the contenders to win this week's Tour Championship and Porsche European Open.

It'll be Dustin Johnson or Jason Day who is crowned player of the year after this week's TOUR Championship, but Jordan Spieth can steal the limelight by defending his title at East Lake.

At seventh in the FedEx Cup standings, victory alone won't guarantee Spieth another $10m paycheck after he landed the jackpot in 2015, but it will satisfy his sole aim of winning this tournament and ending a frustrating year on a high.

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When Spieth romped to a 10-shot win in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions in January, it appeared unthinkable that nine months later he would be down to fourth in the world rankings with just one more title to his name - such are the expectations on his shoulders.

Clearly, his Augusta meltdown in the spring had a lasting effect but what should also be beyond doubt is that he is of a different breed to most other professional sportsmen, and that he will sooner or later add to his major collection.

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For now, a second TOUR Championship will have to do and Spieth's improving form throughout the Play-offs to date suggests he could be primed to defend the title he won by a convincing four shots a year ago.

Image: Spieth secured the FedExCup jackpot with a four-shot win at East Lake last year

Spieth has now been second and first from three tries at East Lake, and what's telling is that he compares the course to Augusta in terms of his comfort levels. Disappointing 2016 Masters aside, his record there is clearly exceptional - in all three visits, he's been at the top of the leaderboard at some stage during the final round.

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While Augusta is still considered to be a course set up for the bombers, East Lake lends them very little advantage and Spieth's sharp short-game can help separate him from the likes of Johnson and Day, neither of whom have been anywhere near as effective on this particular layout.

Of course, Johnson's win in the BMW Championship entitles him to favouritism but it came on a massive, rain-soaked track, where players like Spieth were always going to struggle to compete. East Lake, however, is Spieth's hunting ground and he's a confident selection.

There may only be 30 players in this field but they are some of the very best the PGA Tour has to offer, so there remain so good each-way betting opportunities at big prices if we look just beyond the game's elite.

Image: Jason Day (left) and FedExCup leader Dustin Johnson will both secure the jackpot by winning at East Lake.

Pick of them is Ryan Moore, who loves these Donald Ross-designed courses - his first professional win came at a very similar one - and has been in cracking form lately.

The former US amateur champion bagged top-10 finishes in each of the first two Play-off events and will have benefited greatly from a week off, having enjoyed a busy summer which included his fifth win at this level in the John Deere Classic.

Moore is always dangerous on courses which reward his solid, no-frills game; where staying out of trouble and setting up chances is more of a factor than sheer power. That's East Lake in a nutshell and at 50/1, he's great value.

At a similar price, Charl Schwartzel can enjoy the freedom of being ranked 30th in the standings, a position from which the FedEx Cup jackpot is out of reach.

Image: Schwartzel comes in to the week 30th in the FedExCup standings

Schwartzel can instead focus on winning a tournament he'll feel fortunate to be playing in, as it was only a sparkling Sunday at Crooked Stick which saw him steal the final place in the field.

The man from South Africa switched putter prior to his sensational finish a fortnight ago and it worked the oracle. The hope is this new wand of his continues to be magic because his ball-striking is among the best on Tour and has been all season.

Over in Germany, there are one or two US players taking up invites to play the Porsche European Open, with Bud Cauley the most likely of them to contend at 40/1.

The Alamaba native is back in full health now and is surely going to break through at PGA Tour level soon, but he has very little experience of playing abroad and on balance can be left out in Germany.

Instead, pick of those towards the front of the market are Alex Levy and Ross Fisher.

Levy has returned from an enforced spell on the sidelines in great form, finishing seventh in Italy last week, and a long, soft golf course like the one which welcomes this field is perfect for him.

Image: Levy is searching for a first win since April 2014

This is the player who won a 36-hole Portugal Masters and on a bombers' track in China, so unlike some the heavy rain that has fallen plays right into his hands.

The same goes for Fisher, who won this title by seven shots once upon a time and is striking the ball nicely of late.

He almost always plays well in Germany and did so in this event last year when fifth, having led at halfway. Any sort of improvement on the greens and he'll be right in the mix.

Alongside Fisher last year was Jamie Donaldson, and he played better last week than a missed cut might imply.

Image: Donaldson has missed the cut in six of his past nine starts

Donaldson made a quadruple-bogey eight in his first round, but was bogey-free and made four birdies across the other 17 holes - in other words, one bad swing ended up costing him a weekend pass.

With positive memories of this event and no doubt spurred on by recollections of the 2014 Ryder Cup, given that Hazeltine is just around the corner, he could spring back to life and remind us all of his class.

Others to note include Pablo Larrazabal, Robert Karlsson and Brandon Stone. Larrazabal and Karlsson have won a combined five titles on German soil and each has offered a little bit of encouragement lately.

Karlsson has contended on more than one occasion as he rebuilds his career and was inside the top 30 here last year, while Larrazabal has two wins and a host of other strong finishes from just 16 starts in Germany.

Image: Larrazabal made an early exit at last week's Italian Open

Stone, meanwhile, looks good value given that he went off a similar price in a much stronger field last week.

The South African made his European Tour debut in Germany three years ago, won for the first time earlier this season, and has form in some of the biggest Open events on the circuit this summer.

You have to be prepared to forgive these younger players when they disappoint as Stone did last week, but he finished on a high with a back-nine 32 on Sunday and should be feeling good come the first tee.

Watch the Tour Championship and the European Open throughout the week live on Sky Sports 4 - your home of golf.  Or watch from £6.99 without a contract, on NOW TV.

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