Rory McIlroy has admitted he does not expect to retain his Race to Dubai crown this week, despite having an outside chance of denying Henrik Stenson.
McIlroy heads into the season-ending DP World Tour Championship fourth in the standings behind Stenson, Danny Willett and the in-form Alex Noren, but a win could be enough to be crowned European No 1 for the third straight year if the top three struggle at the Jumeirah Golf Estates.
However, the world No 2 would require Stenson to finish outside the top 45 in the elite 60-player field, with Willett not making the top five and Noren finishing lower than second.
McIlroy pipped Willett to the overall title with a dramatic victory over Andy Sullivan in the event last year, but he has effectively ruled out his chances of overhauling Open champion Stenson, who is also a two-time champion in the event.
"Mathematically I can win, but it's not going to happen," said McIlroy, when asked about his Race to Dubai hopes. "I wouldn't hold my breath. I think the three guys that are ahead of me are playing very good golf, especially the two Swedes, Henrik and Alex.
"Alex with what he's done over the past few weeks, Henrik has had a fantastic year, and so has Danny, obviously... I don't expect those guys to play badly this week. I'm just concentrating on trying to win the golf tournament and if I can do that, I'll be very happy."
McIlroy did not help his cause by opting to pull out of the Turkish Airlines Open earlier this month due to safety fears, but he reiterated that he was comfortable with that course of action.
"I'm very happy with my decision," he added. "I've been here for the last couple of weeks and I've done a bit of practice, enjoyed myself. So, no, no regrets at all."
McIlroy also insisted he was satisfied with his 2016 campaign overall, despite not managing to add to his four major titles, although he did claim the FedExCup for the first time after winning the Deutsche Bank Championship and the Tour Championship.
Asked to rate his season, he said: "It's been good, I've won a couple of things that I hadn't won before. I won the Irish Open, which a huge thing personally for me. It mightn't be the biggest tournament in the world, but personally to me in my mind, it is one of the biggest I play all year.
"That was nice to be able to knock that off - and to win the FedExCup, as well, was big. That was something that I hadn't won before, and to win that, and in the fashion that I did, and winning two of the last three Play-off events over there, that was very satisfying.
"My play in majors was disappointing, missing the cut at the US Open and the PGA. I had a top five at The Open but that was soon forgotten because of what Henrik and Phil did.
"But majors aside, I feel like it's been a pretty good, consistent year. But going into next year, I'd like to think that my performances in the majors are going to be better."
McIlroy's top priority this week is to regain the world No 1 ranking from Jason Day, which he will do if he emerges victorious over the Earth Course for the third time.
"It's a big incentive for me," said the 27-year-old. "It's been a while since I've been in that spot. I know if I win this tournament, I'll finish the year at world No 1. So it's a big incentive for me to try and get that back, and it would be nice to have that little bit of momentum going into next year."
Watch the DP World Tour Championship live on Sky Sports 4 HD from 8am on Thursday.