Who will England play if they qualify for the last 16 of Euro 2016?

Who will England play if they qualify for the last 16 of Euro 2016?

After Thursday's 2-1 win over Wales, it would take a freak run of results to deny England a spot in the knock-out stages after they picked up four points from their first two matches.

But thanks to the expansion of the European Championships to 24 teams it's not as simple as it used to be to plot a route through the tournament.

We break down the scenarios for Roy Hodgson and explain why it's not easy working out who they would face in the last 16…

Who will England play if they win their group?

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If England top their group they will guarantee a last-16 match at 5pm on Saturday June 25 in Paris against the third-place side from Group A, Group C or Group D.

There is a 46% chance of the opponent coming from Group A or Group D and only an 8% chance of them coming from Group C.

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Under the new tournament format, four of the teams that finish third will reach the last 16.

England would only play a team from Group C if Groups A and D are the two groups where a third-place team does not qualify.

So which teams are we talking about?

Image: Albania have finished third in Group A

Albania have finished third in Group A with three points and a minus-two goal difference.

The winner of Czech Republic v Turkey is likely to finish third in Group D - but Croatia could finish third if they lose heavily to Spain and the Czechs beat Turkey.

Given Albania's points total, and if Czech Republic v Turkey finishes as a draw, there is a real possibility that Group D those will be the two groups where the third-place team won't qualify.

In that scenario, England would face the third-place team in Group C - either Germany, Poland or Northern Ireland.

So there's a chance England could win the group and play Germany?

Yes. But a very small chance. For that to happen, Groups A and D would need to be the two groups where the third-place team doesn't qualify.

On top of that Germany would need to lose their final group match to Northern Ireland and Poland would need to avoid defeat against Ukraine.

Image: Germany are possible opponents in the last 16

What are the chances of playing Northern Ireland?

If Northern Ireland fail to beat Germany then they will definitely finish third in Group C.

That means if Groups A and D are the groups where the third-place team doesn't qualify then England would face Michael O'Neill's side.

Where's the smart money?

As of Monday night, Groups D and E have the worst third-place teams.

If that's the case when the group stage ends then England would play Albania, the third-place team in Group A. 

After Albania, we'd argue Czech Republic are the next most likely opponents. Turkey are the next most likely teams England could face.

What if England finish second in their group?

That's much more simple. England would play the team that finishes second in Group F - either Portugal, Austria, Hungary or Iceland.

That match would be in Nice on Monday June 27.

Image: Portugal and Iceland could lie in wait if England finish second in Group B

And what if they finish third?

Defeat to Slovakia could see England finish third in Group B if the Wales v Russia match does not finish as a draw.

As long as it's not a heavy defeat then England's current tally of four points should be enough to see them qualify as one of the best third-place teams.

They would then almost certainly play the winner of Group C in the last 16. That would be Germany, Poland or Northern Ireland in Lille on Sunday June 26.

If Groups E and F are the two groups where the third-place team does not qualify then England would instead play the winner of Group D in Lens on Saturday June 25.

That means they would play the winner of Spain v Croatia - with Spain topping the group if that match finishes as a draw.

Image: There is a very low possibility that England could face Spain

In a nutshell…

If England qualify, there are 13 possible opponents in the last 16 as things stand.

Those 13 teams are Switzerland, Albania, Germany, Poland, Northern Ireland, Spain, Croatia, Czech Republic, Turkey, Hungary, Iceland, Portugal and Austria.

Of those teams, we'd suggest Albania are the most likely opponents and Spain are the least likely - but ultimately there are too many permutations to make an educated guess.

When will we know for certain?

Assuming England qualify on Monday then they will probably not know their last-16 opponents until the group games have been completed on Wednesday evening - less than 72 hours before a potential Saturday evening match.

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