Why can't Leicester win the Premier League?

By Peter Smith

Image: Leicester City are top of the table and dreaming of their first Premier League title

The arguments against Leicester being genuine title contenders are weakening.

Their thumping 3-1 win at Manchester City on Saturday moved them five points clear at the top of the Premier League table, with just 13 games to play. Sky Bet - who had the Foxes as 5000/1 to win the league before the season - have made them 7/4 favourites.

Here, we look at some familiar claims made to dismiss Leicester's shock title bid - and check the stats to see if they still have substance...

Image: Robert Huth scored twice as Leicester City shocked Man City 3-1 at the Etihad

They can't keep this form up

There has been a season-long assumption that Leicester will eventually fall away. "This week, Leicester will lose," has been repeated throughout the campaign. And yet, with just 13 matchdays to go, they remain top of the Premier League.

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Leicester have only lost two out of 25 games - the fewest number of defeats in the league. This is no longer a 'good start' or an 'impressive run of form'. This is the consistency of champions.

Leicester's victory at Man City was the third time they've won three in a row. They've scored first in matches 16 times - a league high - and gone on to seal three points on 13 occasions. They've clinically despatched opponent after opponent.

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What's more, they have nothing to fear from their remaining fixtures. Against the opponents they still have to face this season, Leicester have beaten 10, drawn with two and only lost to Arsenal.

Leicester's record against remaining opponents

Team Result earlier this season
Arsenal Lost
Norwich Won
West Brom Won
Watford Won
Newcastle Won
Crystal Palace Won
Southampton Drew
Sunderland Won
West Ham Won
Swansea Won
Man Utd Drew
Everton Won
Chelsea Won

They won't beat the big teams

Leicester's ability to win the big games can no longer be questioned. Their impressive 3-1 win at Man City was emphatic. It came on the back of victories over Tottenham and Liverpool - both fixtures billed as tests of Leicester's title credentials.

The Foxes still have Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea to face but they took four points from those three games earlier in the season. A repeat would be a substantial step towards the title - especially considering, of the rest of their remaining opponents, Watford, West Ham and Southampton are the only other sides currently in the top half.

Can Leicester win the Premier League? The Soccer Saturday verdict...

Matt Le Tissier: Yes
Paul Merson: No
Phil Thompson: Yes
Charlie Nicholas: No

Image: Jamie Vardy has played in each of Leicester's Premier League game this season

Once they get injuries to key players, it will all unravel

Unquestionably, Leicester's unexpected title bid has been boosted by their remarkable injury record. The Foxes have suffered the fourth-fewest number of injuries in the Premier League this season. Claudio Ranieri's squad has been affected by just 15 separate injuries, ahead of this weekend.

Premier League injury table

See which Premier League clubs have had the most injuries so far this season

In contrast, title rivals Manchester City have had the worst injury record, suffering 51 injuries, while Manchester United (40 injuries), Tottenham (28) and Arsenal (22) have had far more problems than the Foxes.

Injuries to Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez - who have been available for every Premier League match this season - would no doubt reduce Leicester's attacking threat. Ranieri will be hoping his luck with injuries lasts a little longer.

Image: Danny Drinkwater celebrates scoring against Stoke

They can't keep up their high-energy performances for a whole season

Tireless running has been a key characteristic of this Leicester team. Their work rate is among the highest in the league - as a team, they covered 4.5km more than Manchester City on Saturday. Surely they can't keep it up?

While the 108.7km Leicester covered at Man City on Saturday was actually 2km down on their season average of 110.7km per game, they have exceeded that average in four of their past six Premier League games - including a 117.3km effort at home to Bournemouth, their second-highest total this season. Leicester aren't slowing down.

Leicester running - last six games

Opponent Leicester distance covered Compared to Leicester season average
Liverpool 114.5 +3.76
Man City 107.7 -3.04
Bournemouth 117.3 +6.56
Tottenham 113.7 +2.96
Aston Villa 111 +0.26
Stoke 107.8 -2.94
Liverpool 113.5 +2.76
Man City 108.7 -2.04

Leicester have plenty of time to recover from their weekly exertions, too. Out of the FA Cup and League Cup, and with no European commitments, Leicester have just 13 games left to concentrate on this season - a potentially crucial advantage over their title rivals.

In contrast, Man City have a potential 25 games remaining, with their Capital One Cup final, Champions League knockout phase and FA Cup run keeping them occupied. Tottenham have one more than that, with up to nine Europa League ties and four FA Cup contests taking their tally to 26.

Arsenal could also have 24 games to consider, should their FA Cup and Champions League involvement continue. All of which, plays into the hands of Leicester.

Their rivals for the title are much better

Image: Wes Morgan has made more blocks than any other defender in the top four

Leicester's title rivals are regulars at the top end of the table. Manchester City have won two of the past four Premier Leagues, Arsenal haven't finished below fourth since 1996 and, in the past six seasons, Tottenham haven't ended a campaign outside of the top six.

Yet, across the pitch, Leicester's players are at least matching the best their fellow top-four sides have to offer this season.

Jamie Vardy is the Premier League's top scorer with 18 goals, Riyad Mahrez is the first player in the top flight to reach double figures for both goals and assists (14 goals, 10 assists), no top-four defender has won more tackles than Christian Fuchs (45) or made as many blocks as Wes Morgan (25), while, in midfield, N'Golo Kante tops the Premier League for interceptions (103).

Conclusion

Image: Jamie Vardy is the Premier League's top scorer with 18 goals

Leicester can no longer be discounted. Approaching the final quarter of the season, they have a significant advantage over the rest of the top four and the stats underline how well they've been performing.

Whether Ranieri's side can go on to lift the crown remains to be seen. It would certainly be the most incredible Premier League victory ever. But what isn't in doubt, is that right now Leicester are answering all of the questions asked of them. 

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