The rule of 17: Can your club still get promoted from the Sky Bet Championship?

By Mark Thompson

Image: Is where your club is after 17 games a decisive factor in your season?

At this stage of every season, the usual cliches are trotted out: 'The Championship is the most unpredictable league in the world', 'you don't win it in November', 'there's always one side that puts a run together'.

But the statistics tell a different story: 32 out of the last 39 sides promoted to the Premier League from the Championship have been in the top six after 17 games - a landmark we reach this weekend.

Latest Sky Bet odds

Check out all the latest Sky Bet odds from the Championship, EFL and more ahead of this weekend's action

Sky Bet Championship - current top six

Team Pl W D L GD Pts
Wolves 16 11 2 3 14 35
Sheff Utd 16 11 0 5 10 33
Cardiff 16 9 4 3 9 31
Bristol C 16 8 6 2 10 30
M'boro 16 7 5 4 8 26
A Villa 16 7 5 4 7 26

Wolves currently lead the way, with Sheffield United just two points behind, and history provides cause for optimism for Nuno Espirito Santo and Chris Wilder's respective sides.

Over the past five seasons, only one team (Norwich in 2014/15, via the play-offs) has gone up after being outside of the play-off positions at this stage. Traditionally not much importance is given to the state of tables until closer to spring but it stands to reason that there must be a point when the league settles down.

Image: Norwich were one of the few teams to win promotion from the Championship after being outside of the top six after 17 games

The Championship is now into its 14th campaign and the league's pattern of behaviour has started to take shape. Around the 15-game mark the positions start to stabilise, and by 17 the stats suggest the sides in the promotion race have largely been decided.

Advertisement

To use last season as an example, Newcastle found themselves top after 17 games, with Brighton in second and Huddersfield in fourth. Despite Brighton looking like they were going to win the title for spells, and Huddersfield slipping down a place on goal difference, that is where they finished.

Rather than being an exception, this has been the case in most Championship seasons, the teams in first and second at this stage tend to go up. To look at the past five years again as an example - just two out of 10 teams have failed to go up after being in either first or second.

Also See:

Where were last 39 promoted teams in the table after 17 games?

Position after 17 games No. of teams who went up
1st 9
2nd 10
Play-offs 13
Top half (7th-12th) 5
Bottom half 2

The exceptions: Reading and Sunderland

What about Reading (2011/12) and Sunderland (2006/07)? The reason these two cases are brought up so often is that they're the exception rather than the norm, no other teams have been promoted after being in the bottom half after 17 games - two out of 39.

What these statistics suggest is that rather than being unpredictable and reliant on a good January transfer window, the Championship actually rewards a good start and consistency.

Image: Reading were 14th after 17 games in 201/12 but managed an unlikely charge towards the title

We can expect this rule of 17 to be put to the test this season.

Reading could mount another charge - not many would have picked Jaap Stam's men and Fulham, their fellow play-off contenders last year, to be struggling so deep into November, and neither can reach the top half with a win this weekend.

By the time the final whistle blows on May 5 we'll know whether either of them have managed to rip the rule apart or whether their season was actually over by mid-November as the numbers suggest.

Last 39 promoted teams - league position after 17 games

Season Team (final position) Position after 17 games
2016/17 Newcastle (Champions) 1st
Brighton (Promoted) 2nd
Huddersfield (play/offs) 4th
2015/16 Burnley (C) 5th
Middlesbrough (P) 3rd
Hull (p/o) 1st
2014/15 Bournemouth (C) 2nd
Watford (P) 5th
Norwich (p/o) 10th
2013/14 Leicester (C) 1st
Burnley (P) 2nd
QPR (p/o) 3rd
2012/13 Cardiff (C) 2nd
Hull (P) 4th
Crystal Palace (p/o) 1st
2011/12 Reading (C) 14th
Southampton (P) 1st
West Ham (p/o) 2nd
2010/11 QPR (C) 2nd
Norwich (P) 8th
Swansea (p/o) 3rd
2009/10 Newcastle (C) 1st
West Brom (P) 2nd
Blackpool (p/o) 7th
2008/09 Wolves (C) 1st
Birmingham (P) 2nd
Burnley (p/o) 4th
2007/08 West Brom (C) 2nd
Stoke (P) 10th
Hull (p/o) 9th
2006/07 Sunderland (C) 19th
Birmingham (P) 3rd
Derby (p/o) 5th
2005/06 Reading (C) 2nd
Sheff Utd (P) 1st
Watford (p/o) 3rd
2004/05 Sunderland (C) 3rd
Wigan (P) 1st
West Ham (p/o) 6th
Outbrain