David de Gea's mistakes: Should Ole Gunnar Solskjaer persist with him?

How long should Ole Gunnar Solskjaer persist with David de Gea as his form continues to slump? Watch Manchester United vs West Ham live on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League from 5pm on Wednesday; kick-off 6pm

By Adam Bate, Comment and Analysis @ghostgoal

Image: Manchester United goalkeeper David de Gea's performances are under scrutiny

In the immediate aftermath of David de Gea’s costly mistake against Chelsea in Manchester United's FA Cup semi-final defeat, the reaction of some pundits was swift. Bring Dean Henderson back from his loan spell at Sheffield United. Move the Spaniard on.

The problem for United boss Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is that such a change is easier said than done.

Solskjaer is acutely aware of the catalogue of errors by his goalkeeper. He was there, after all, watching on in disbelief as De Gea allowed a Mason Mount shot that he should have saved - "100 times out of 100" according to his manager - to slip through his grasp.

Just as he has done already this year against Watford, Tottenham and Everton, the man once regarded by the club's fans as Europe's finest goalkeeper, found a way to concede.

But Solskjaer knows he must be absolutely certain before setting the wheels in motion to replace United's four-time player of the year. De Gea's purported £375,000-per-week salary, on a contract that runs until 2023, guarantees any exit would not be straightforward.

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Goalkeeper is a position unlike any other. While an unwanted striker might be moved on to form part of a quartet of forward elsewhere, vacancies are limited. There are maybe only half a dozen clubs in Europe who could afford De Gea's salary even if inclined to acquire his services.

Image: De Gea commands a strong reputation and a significant salary to match

As a result, Solskjaer must be more circumspect. His handling of De Gea has been textbook stuff so far. At first, there were words of encouragement. Reminders of his world-class pedigree. Attempts to build confidence in the belief that this was part of the problem. More recently, there have been reminders of the standards expected at Old Trafford.

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At Wembley, Solskjaer attempted a bit of both.

"We have been unbeaten for 19 games," said Solskjaer.

"We have kept clean sheets, and on Thursday night, he made some great saves against Crystal Palace. I see where you're coming from and everyone is going to make headlines on David." He added: "I know he is a mentally strong person and goalkeeper."

But all this came only after he had spelled out the expectations.

"Obviously, everyone has to perform."

Image: De Gea also allowed Olivier Giroud's opening goal to squirm away from him

He is right, of course, but he knows too the next step of bringing in a replacement is fraught with risk as well as practical difficulties. Unlike the views of a pundit - or indeed a journalist - there is no walking it back. If Solskjaer opts for the 23-year-old Henderson after just one season of experience in the Premier League then he will want to be certain.

Consider, for example, the reaction of those same media commentators should Henderson repeat his error of earlier this season when he let in Liverpool's winner at Bramall Lane.

That incident is unlikely to make many highlights packages. Indeed, many have forgotten it. But it requires no great feat of imagination to envisage how such an error against the same opposition would resonate around the world if served up in a United goalkeeper shirt next season.

Even amid the glare of the Premier League some mistakes shine more brightly than others.

"What I do not buy into is the idea that Dean Henderson can just go in that goalmouth area at the Stretford End and adapt to the demands of being a Manchester United goalkeeper," Gary Neville told Sky Sports.

"It takes a special character. There is no escape at this club and that is why I would just be a little bit cautious over Dean Henderson. With respect to Sheffield United, it is very different making a mistake for Manchester United.

"It would be a huge call to bring Henderson back to Old Trafford and make him No 1. You are dismissing everything De Gea has done. I would just urge caution."

Even so, Henderson would be entitled to some leeway given the standards De Gea has been setting these past two seasons. Inexperience is no excuse for him. Yet, his recent record of errors leading to goals in the Premier League lays bare his alarming decline.

After making no such mistakes in the competition under David Moyes, there were a couple in his two seasons under Louis van Gaal and two more under Jose Mourinho. In just one-and-a-half seasons under Solskjaer, De Gea has already been directly culpable for six goals.

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Only one other player in the competition - Newcastle United goalkeeper Martin Dubravka - has made so many mistakes leading to goals during that same time period.

Of course, there is more to goalkeeping than the occasional error. If De Gea were making up for his mistakes by pulling off spectacular saves that others cannot, that would be different.

For example, Hugo Lloris' reputation for costly errors is mitigated by the fact the expected-goals data indicates that the Tottenham captain has saved far more goals than any other goalkeeper in the Premier League over the past three seasons.

This post-shot data analyses where on the goalmouth that a shot is struck, the location from which it was struck and the type of shot attempted. The results show that Dubravka, for all his mistakes, has, on balance, saved more shots for Newcastle than would be expected.

De Gea's numbers, despite his reputation for the spectacular, are not so impressive.

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After saving his team goals under Moyes, Van Gaal and Mourinho, he has conceded more than the average goalkeeper would have been expected to concede under Solskjaer.

Henderson, for what it is worth, has conceded 29 goals for Sheffield United from shots that would - on average - have been expected to yield at least 39 goals. Even if the sample size is small, the data suggests his dramatic impact on the Blades' season is no myth.

Could Henderson sustain anything like those numbers at Manchester United? For Solskjaer, it is a question now well worth asking. There are still lots of factors to consider. Not least, whether he can afford - in every sense - to call time on De Gea's career at the club.

But if he continues to cost his team, the emphasis may shift. For all the complications, Solskjaer could soon be asking himself another question. Can he afford not to?

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