Arsenal, Man City, West Ham, Man Utd, Stoke, Southampton, Liverpool - top-four race analysed

By Pete Hall

The riches on offer in the Champions League make the battle for the top four hotly contested, and with the Premier League at its most unpredictable, next season's English representatives in Europe's elite competition will certainly not be all of the traditional powerhouses.

Leicester have one place all but sewn up, while Tottenham are looking up rather than down in second.

But what about the rest? Are Arsenal in danger of missing out on a top-four finish? Can West Ham keep up their form until the end of the season? Could injuries condemn Pep Guardiola to the Europa League next season? We look at the hopes of a cluster of clubs with top-four aspirations.

Premier League table

Team Games played Goal difference Points
Arsenal 31 22 58
Man City 31 24 54
Man Utd 31 12 53
West Ham 31 12 51
Southampton 32 8 47
Stoke 32 -3 47
Liverpool 30 5 45

Form

After exiting the FA Cup and Champions League in the same week before the international break, Arsenal have hit back in the Premier League and have put in some impressive performances against Everton and Watford in their last two games to remain on course for a record 19th consecutive Champions League qualification.

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West Ham are on a roll and hitting top form at the right time. The Hammers are unbeaten in their last six Premier League games, but were held to a 2-2 draw by struggling Crystal Palace last weekend.

Image: City's form could cost them a top-four place

After Manchester City's defeat against bitter rivals United just before the international break, Manuel Pelligrini's men came firing back with a 4-0 win against Bournemouth on Saturday - but the teams around them also won their games. Their home form remains of particular concern, having suffered more defeats this season at the Etihad than the last four seasons combined.

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United have also been guilty of inconsistency, but have won four of the last five in the league. If Louis van Gaal is going to have any hope of keeping his job, United must build on the recent wins and finish in at least fourth.

Only Leicester and Tottenham have secured more points in their last six games than Stoke, while Liverpool and Southampton have also seen an upturn in their recent fortunes.

Remaining fixtures

Remaining fixtures for teams in race for fourth

Arsenal Man City West Ham Man Utd Southampton Stoke Liverpool
West Ham (a) West Brom (h) Arsenal (h) Tottenham (a) Newcastle (h) Liverpool (a) Stoke (h)
Crystal Palace (h) Chelsea (a) Leicester (a) Aston Villa (h) Everton (a) Tottenham (h) Bournemouth (a)
West Brom (h) Newcastle (a) Watford (h) Crystal Palace (h) Aston Villa (a) Man City (a) Everton (h)
Sunderland (a) Stoke (h) West Brom (a) Leicester (h) Man City (h) Sunderland (h) Newcastle (h)
Norwich (h) Southampton (a) Swansea (h) Norwich (a) Tottenham (a) Crystal Palace (a) Swansea (a)
Man City (a) Arsenal (h) Man Utd (h) West Ham (a) Crystal Palace (h) West Ham (h) Watford (h)
Aston Villa (h) Swansea (a) Stoke (a) Bournemouth (h) - - Chelsea (h)
- - - - - - West Brom (a)

What helps Liverpool's cause is that they have a game in hand, against neighbours Everton, live on Sky Sports, and in a fixture that they have not tasted defeat since 1999, they'll fancy their chances of making up ground.

Arsenal could dent West Ham's aspirations when the pair face off this weekend, with Manchester City the only other top half opposition left for Arsene Wenger's men, while the Hammers face an altogether tougher set of fixtures with Leicester, Manchester United and Stoke still to come.

Relegation run-in

Newcastle, Sunderland, Norwich City and Aston Villa run-ins analysed

Along with a Champions League quarter-final against PSG to contend with, City's remaining matches are unrelenting, with Chelsea, Stoke, Southampton, Arsenal and relegation-battling Newcastle still on the agenda.

United also have to face the top two, as well as what could be that make-or-break encounter against West Ham on May 10, live on Sky Sports.

Game changers

Image: Dimitri Payet has been in scintillating form for West Ham

Each team in the run-in possesses a potent weapon which could be the difference between agony and ecstasy. The question is, can they turn it on when it matters most?

Manchester City and Arsenal's main protagonists seem to have gone missing at the wrong time. Mesut Ozil couldn't put a foot wrong earlier in the season, but has managed just two goals and three assists in his last ten league games, while Sergio Aguero has just three goals to show for his last six league outings.

Steve Round thinks Manchester United have momentum at a key time

West Ham are where they are due to their new-found wealth of talent - with Dimitri Payet the embodiment of their attacking endeavour.

Nine goals and eight assists represents a fantastic Premier League debut campaign, and having been instrumental in recent comebacks against Norwich and Everton, when the Hammers looked dead and buried, such ability could earn those extra few points that could make all the difference.

Manchester United have turned to youth, with Marcus Rashford the first name on the team sheet at the moment. There has been no initiation period for Anthony Martial either, as he has become the focal point of everything United have to offer.

Image: Youngsters have been trusted with firing United into the top four

The fitness of Daniel Sturridge will be pivotal to Liverpool's hopes, Ibrahim Afellay is showing what all the fuss at Barcelona was about at Stoke, while Graziano Pelle is back in the Saints team, and back in the goals.

Injuries

Current injuries

Team Number of injuries (According to physioroom.com)
Stoke 8
Liverpool 6
Man United 5
Arsenal 4
Man City 4
Southampton 3
West Ham 3

For Arsenal, their treatment room is looking fairly empty for this crucial stage of the season, with mainstays Aaron Ramsey, Jack Wilshere and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain kicking around and Santi Cazorla also joining them for the remainder of the month.

Wayne Rooney is nearing a return for Manchester United, but where will he fit in Van Gaal's youthful front three?  Neighbours City also have key players on the sidelined. Vincent Kompany's calf continues to cause him problems, while Raheem Sterling and Yaya Toure are also sidelined but Joe Hart has made an early return for the run-in.

Stoke City's injury list has sky rocketed in the last few weeks, with Jack Butland out for the rest of the season after picking up an ankle injury on England duty and joins key players such as Xherdan Shaqiri, Ryan Shawcross and Glen Johnson on the sidelines.

West Ham have all their big hitters back, Roberto Firmino is nearing a return for Liverpool, while Shane Long is on the mend for Southampton's late push.

Conclusion

Image: Vincent Kompany's injury problems could cost City dear

Manchester City are in real danger of missing out. The absence of Kompany and Toure is a real worry for Manuel Pellegrini, as is their alarming recent slump.

That opens the door for the chasing pack. Arsenal have enough points in the bag to be reasonably comfortable, but defeat at West Ham in that crucial upcoming encounter could change all that.

The Hammers will fancy their chances, with no pressure on them to succeed and in the form they are in. United simply have to finish at least fourth with the money that they have spent, but have some tough fixtures remaining.

Image: West Ham's win at Everton shows they have the stomach for the fight

Liverpool could make a late surge, but will have to improve at the back following their lacklustre second half showing at Southampton a few weeks ago, who will be looking to build on their comeback win to mount a surge of their own.

Stoke are operating under the radar, and will want to keep it that way.

In other words, it is going down to the wire!

Who do you think has the toughest run-in? Let us know using the message boards or by tweeting @SkyFootball

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