After landing his 11/1 best bet treble last weekend, our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide his insight on every Premier League game.
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
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Brighton's offside line under Fabian Hurzeler fascinates me. It's a defence that has caught 31 players offsides in six games, resulting in a per game average of 5.1, with Wolves caught offside nine times in midweek.
It's such a courageous, aggressive way to play but if opposition teams get the final pass right it does leave Brighton open to conceding high-quality chances on their goal.
This is why I'm happy to combine an offsides and a Forest goals play through the Build A Bet function on Sky Bet. You can get 6/4 with Sky Bet on both teams scoring and Forest being caught offside three or more times.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Manchester City vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
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Arsenal's price for the win to nil has been seducing me all week ever since I clapped eyes on it.
That 13/2 with Sky Bet is just too big to pass up.
This is a team that have won 10 of their 11 Premier League games away from home in 2024, conceding just three goals along the way. A team with such power, organisation and class who are rated with just a 22 per cent chance of victory to win a football match seems wrong - even against a juggernaut like Manchester City.
A juggernaut, albeit, that is regressing, especially in defence as teams can expose them on the counter-attack. Brentford and Inter Milan have showed us this in recent days but it's been happening for a while and was the reason why Real Madrid knocked them out of the Champions League last campaign.
Brentford countered with such ease last Saturday especially in the first half, when they could have been 3-0 up. City conceded five or more shots on target for just the second time in a home game under Pep Guardiola and Brentford even won the possession battle before the break.
And then Inter had 10 shots in the first half in midweek as they found it very easy to break through on the City backline via some clever passing and driving runs. They became the first opposing side to have 10 or more shots in the first half of a Champions League game at the Etihad since Monaco in February 2017.
Arsenal are ruthless enough at both ends of the pitch to take advantage and the Evens on offer for them to avoid defeat is the value call, as is the 13/2 win to nil price.
Statement victory, ahoy.