Transfer window: Damien Comolli on how market trends will change after coronavirus

Former Liverpool and Tottenham director of football Damien Comolli forecasts key alterations to the transfer market post-coronavirus

Former Liverpool and Tottenham director of football Damien Comolli believes some clubs may benefit from reduced transfer fees in future transfer windows

It's a searching question on the minds of all associated with football: what will the transfer market look like after the coronavirus has hit?

Premier League spending topped out at £1.4billion in the 2019 summer transfer window but with clubs battling to stay in existence due to the financial impact of the coronavirus outbreak, matching last summer's spend is almost certainly out of the question.

Football has rightfully taken a back seat during the COVID-19 pandemic but as lockdown measures begin to ease in Europe and plans for the resumption of seasons continue to take shape, thoughts turn to what landscape awaits on the pitch and in the transfer market when football eventually returns.

Former Liverpool and Tottenham director of football Damien Comolli appeared on The Football Show to map out the post-coronavirus alterations that will change the transfer market as we know it...

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The era of swaps, loans and frees

Image: Former Liverpool and Spurs director of football Damien Comolli appeared on The Football Show on Wednesday

"Everything will change. We are going to be in a situation we have never seen before. The whole football business will be changing. There will be situations where clubs with a little bit of cash will be able to sweep the market by investing in young players. There will be situations where clubs will have no money at all.

"For the first time, on a global scale, we will see clubs swapping players like they have been doing in Italy, with one or two players going one way and a bit of cash going the other. We will be seeing a lot of loans, I am convinced about that because clubs looking to save money on their wage bill won't be able to sell players.

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"There will also be an interesting trend with free transfers. The free agents at the top 20 clubs in the world are becoming very hot property because there is no transfer fee attached to their names.

"Those players will probably be able to maintain the same level of remuneration and maybe even increase it. However, players who are at the end of their contracts this summer, those players in the lower tiers, will see their remuneration decrease significantly."

An opportunity as values tumble?

Former Tottenham and Liverpool director of football Damien Comolli reveals an agent has told him that only three Premier League clubs can afford to sign players this summer because of the coronavirus crisis

"I was talking to an agent in Belgium and he said his players that were worth £30m in January are now worth £10m, we're only in May and things are going to go down further.

"So you can only imagine if you are a good club with some cash you could actually sweep the market by getting some very good young players at an incredibly discounted price.

"Having had discussions with clubs in Europe, even the medium-sized ones, who are in a good financial position, are definitely thinking about seizing this opportunity.

"Some clubs will see this as a great opportunity to find players, we will see a trend of big clubs signing young players and good clubs signing young players.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the big European clubs spending in excess of £100m on five, six or seven players that could be the core of their team for years to come, this is going to happen.

"The clubs that are prepared for this from a scouting point of view, a squad management point of view, a success planning point of view and who all have cash will be in a position to do it."

Big-money deals are dead

Image: Manchester United signed Bruno Fernandes from Sporting Lisbon in the winter window for a fee that could rise to £68m

"The days of [£100m transfers] are gone for three reasons and the first is the availability of cash. The chairmen of Brighton and Burnley have come out and said they are forecasting losses of around £50m, it's not rocket science to understand that that's their transfer budget.

"If they are losing that money it's either the transfer budget goes out of the window or club covers the losses by selling players, but it's a vicious circle because they won't be able to sell.

"The second aspect which will be interesting is that there are a few clubs around Europe that are sitting on a lot of cash. If you are a chief executive or an owner of one of those clubs, you've got a PR aspect to worry about.

"In a time of crisis like this, when there are thousands of people dying and losing their jobs and the economy is going downhill, would it be morally right for a club to go and spend £100m on a player? I am not sure it would be the case.

"The third aspect is that clubs are asking for government bailouts, furloughing staff and asking for tax exemptions but, at the same time, if those clubs are being linked in papers with players, what will the taxman say, what would Chancellor Rishi Sunak say?

"Asking for help and then spending £30m on a player doesn't make sense. Those three aspects make the future transfer market both interesting and rigid."

Squads no longer ludicrous in size

"I think we are going to see much smaller squads. The average Premier League squad has 25 players - does it have to be that big?

"Clubs may look at having 16, 17, maybe 18 seasoned professionals and then the rest will be youngsters, even the bigger clubs.

"Some clubs in Italy have got 35 players training every day which is ludicrous, I think we are going to see a massive decline in squad numbers which in return will help young players in their pathway to the first team."

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