Formula 1 in 2016: A big year for Toro Rosso's Max Verstappen

Will 2015's rookie of the year be the key to the 2017 driver market?

By James Galloway

He may only be about to start his second season in Formula 1, but 2016 could already prove a seminal year in the career of Max Verstappen.

Mercedes and Ferrari may have seats up for grabs at the season's end should Nico Rosberg and Kimi Raikkonen not earn themselves respective new deals and, although the list of potential alternatives at both teams would be vast, Verstappen's outstanding form in his first season with Toro Rosso has already put him on their radars. All this at the age of just 18.

"If you're Toto Wolff, if you're Maurizio Arrivabene, there is only one name on your list for the medium and long-term future at the moment," says Sky F1 commentator David Croft.

"There are no two ways about it: there is no other driver who they haven't already got who would fit the bill."

In Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel, Mercedes and Ferrari each have one multiple champion signed up for at least the next couple of seasons, giving them a reassuring level of top-level driver security.

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However, as much as F1 is about the here and now, it is also about making sure you are best positioned for long-term success and after just 19 races, Verstappen has already convinced many seasoned observers that he is the go-to driver for world title wins well into the next decade.

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"He is quite clearly world championship material and he is just 18 years old, they will be fighting like crazy to get hold of him," remarked Martin Brundle last November. "He is the hottest property in F1 that is not an established race or world championship winner,"

Will Verstappen improve again?
But would it be wrong to assume that Verstappen will sidestep the usual growing pains associated with developing drivers - or, to borrow a phrase from football, Second Season Syndrome?

"We know he's a talented kid - and he will still be 18 for most of this season - but he's got two things that could count against him," pondered Croft. "First and foremost, his car might not be as good. We don't know for sure until we go to Australia, but it's running a year-old engine. So will Toro Rosso give him the goods to perform over the whole season?

"Then, how does he perform with the pressure of expectation? It's one thing to come in and say 'hey, I'm Max Verstappen, here I am, don't you love me?' It's another to do what he did last year when people know all about him."

Certainly rival drivers now know what Verstappen is all about when they go wheel-to-wheel with him. 

Rather like Hamilton when the world champion first made his mark on F1 in 2007, Verstappen was last season able to harness his undoubted feel when a car is on a knife-edge with one of the biggest advantages of all - surprise.

Speaking to Sky Sports in Abu Dhabi, Toro Rosso technical director James Key admitted that while the team did attempt to make up for their Renault engine shortfall by focusing on ways to optimise overtaking opportunities, Verstappen "got away with so many moves that you think 'my god, you wouldn't normally try that'".

The youngster's maturity outside of the car also caught the eye.

"Looking at the way he handled himself last year and the way he showed great maturity on and off the track, there were times when you thought 'wow, you've really thought about the question and what you say and a lot of what you're saying is quite correct'," says Croft.

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"His exchange with Felipe Massa in the Canadian GP press conference was one of those highlights. One of the elder statesmen was rather put away by Verstappen's answer. I think he will deliver again and I see a lot of signs that this guy could deliver at the top for many years."

And there's the rub for his would-be suitors. He may only be 18, and have two seasons of single-seater racing behind him, but can either of F1's big hitters afford to take a cautious approach with their next big signing?

"What do you do if you're Ferrari or Mercedes?" asks Croft. "Do you play the waiting game and see whether Verstappen can deliver, or do you try to get in there early? It might be that the earlier you get in the better chance you have got because it might be that both of them are fighting over one man."

A three-way battle
And what about Red Bull? As the parent of Toro Rosso, Red Bull hold Verstappen's contract - but is the Dutchman necessarily on the same glide path that has taken Daniel Ricciardo, Daniil Kvyat and Vettel from junior to senior team? 

"He was on the radar of a lot of teams and a lot of Formula 1 bosses for a long time," points out Croft. "He went to Toro Rosso, but don't forget both Ferrari and Mercedes held talks with him and his dad before he went there.

"What they couldn't give him last year was a race seat. But that doesn't mean he has got himself tied in with Red Bull and tied in for the long run. I don't know the answer but I would suspect, as his dad is very clever and he is very clever, that there isn't more than a two-year deal on the table that he can be bought out of at the end of those two years."

Having made clear that winning the world title - rather than the lure of driving for any particular team - is what motivates him, Verstappen may have the pick of which F1 top table he dines at if his stratospheric rise continues uninterrupted this year.

The first race of the 2016 F1 season, the Australian GP, is exclusively live on Sky F1. The race in Melbourne starts at 5am on Sunday March 20.

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