Sao Paulo GP: Mercedes' prospects assessed as they return to scene of last F1 win, one year on

Mercedes' impressive late-season victory last year in Brazil wasn't ultimately a sign of things to come in 2023, so how are they looking one year on and what chance a repeat this weekend? watch the Sao Paulo GP live on Sky Sports F1 from Friday, with Sunday's race at 5pm

George Russell wins his first ever Formula 1 Grand Prix holding off Mercedes team-mate Lewis Hamilton to win in Sao Paulo.

Interlagos, Sao Paulo; November 2022. The scene of George Russell's maiden Grand Prix victory in Formula 1. And also the scene of what remains the Mercedes team's most recent triumph.

Almost a full calendar year has passed since that November 13 afternoon when Russell - who had already won the Sprint the day before - impressively kept his composure to hold off a comeback charge from team-mate Lewis Hamilton to claim what at the time appeared a potentially significant breakthrough win for the team amid a difficult first season under F1's current regulation era.

F1 is back in Brazil for the 2023 edition of the Sao Paulo Grand Prix this weekend, live on Sky Sports F1, with Mercedes still searching for a first victory of this season and locked in what currently are close battles for the runner-up positions in the championships behind runaway Max Verstappen and Red Bull.

So where are they at, one year on from that Russell win, in their bid to get back to the front of the field and what are the chances of a repeat Interlagos success this Sunday, on the back of the promise shown in the first two legs of F1's ongoing Americas triple header.

What's happened at Mercedes since Brazil 2022?

Speaking after the season-opening Bahrain GP, Toto Wolff said the team had one of the 'worst days in racing' after finishing fifth and seventh

If the Verstappen-dominated Abu Dhabi GP that followed one week after Brazil last November gave everyone a useful reminder of how fast Red Bull still were in 2022, it didn't take very long into this year for realisation to dawn about what lay ahead in 2023.

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The dominant early pace of the new RB19 in both Bahrain testing and the opening Grand Prix weekend itself back in March was a sobering reality check for the so-called chasing pack.

For Mercedes, it quickly resulted in the abandonment of their unique 'zero-sidepod' concept that had garnered so many headlines when it was revealed at the start of F1's new regulation era in 2022, and then stuck with for 2023's car.

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It was as early as his interview after the season's opening Friday practice sessions that Hamilton publicly signalled that Mercedes were on the "wrong track" with their car approach, an assessment team boss Toto Wolff said he agreed with when he spoke to the media 24 hours later after his new car qualified 0.6s adrift of pole.

"We got it wrong last year [2022]," said Wolff at the time. "We thought we could fix it by sticking to the concept of car but it didn't work out. So we just need to switch our focus on to what we believe is the right direction."

It probably didn't, but if anything further did need to be underlined, then finishing 50s behind Verstappen one day later in the race certainly would have done that. Wolff described it as "one of the worst days in racing," for him and that "Red Bull is just on a different planet".

Although a new path for development was now to be set in motion, the season was now always likely to be one of compromise given the W14 had been developed around a different core design philosophy. With Red Bull clearly out of reach, making the best of what they had, and could still improve, was going to be the focus of 2023.

In April, Mercedes announced a job swap at the head of their technical structure with James Allison and Mike Elliott after a review led by the latter. Allison returned to the position of technical director he last held in mid-2021, with Elliott stepping up to the broader chief technical officer role.

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The revised bodywork layout was first raced at the Monaco GP at the end of May, after the previous race at Imola was cancelled, at which point Mercedes were, to their credit, close behind Aston Martin for second in the constructors' standings despite their rivals having a quicker car to that point.

Mercedes took over that position a race later after what stands as their only double podium of the year in Spain and remain on course to hold on to it with three races to go, 22 points ahead of Ferrari.

But like all the teams behind the Verstappen-Red Bull steamroller this year, there have been good weekends and bad weekends, as the various 2023 car strengths and weaknesses play out from track to track.

Suzuka, and particularly its fast, flowing Esses, was a particular low-point for Mercedes at the start of October but the W14 has since shown more encouraging form in Qatar - although the final result was compromised by Hamilton-Russell's first-corner collision - and then in the pair of runner-up finishes to Verstappen on track over the past fortnight in the USA and Mexico (although they lost the first of these when Hamilton's car was disqualified due to excessive plank wear).

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Mercedes will finish this year without the long-serving Elliot. Announcing the news on Tuesday, Mercedes said it was his decision to leave after 12 years, with Wolff describing Elliott as one of the "pillars of the team's achievements" and a "fiercely intelligent technical brain".

First as head of aerodynamics and then technology director, Elliott was a senior presence during Mercedes' record-setting title-winning years, but his subsequent two-year spell as technical director was not accompanied by the same success.

Are they now on the right path for 2024?

Lewis Hamilton says he has total faith in Mercedes and that they can build a great car after seeing progression with a second-place finish in the Mexico City Grand Prix.

Mercedes described the recent floor upgrade brought to Austin as having a two-fold purpose: to improve areas of this year's W14, which lacks rear downforce and stability, and also act as a bellwether for whether their development was heading the right way for next year's W15.

So what's the verdict two races in?

"We have seen that it is providing more downforce, more driveability, the car is a little bit less tricky," said Wolff after Sunday's race in Mexico.

"Still the genes [of the W14] are there. Lewis said to me yesterday: 'she is still so difficult to drive, although she's faster'.

"For us it was important to see whether directionally we were going in the right direction also for next year, and it seems to be on the right path.

"You must not forget that the car that we have designed didn't have that floor, that airflow, these sidepods, leading edges and all the 'Christmas decorations' around the design for what we have now. So hopefully that can be a step next year."

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And it's the scale of that required 'step' which is now the key focus as the winter looms.

Hamilton has consistently underlined the challenge ahead in interviews recently, telling Sky after a particularly torrid Japanese GP for the team at the start of October that "the next six months have got to be the greatest six months of development that we've ever, ever had to close that gap".

He returned to that theme again after last Sunday's race in Mexico, where he drove superbly to finish second from sixth on the grid.

"I am incredibly proud of my team and, as I said at the end of the race, I have total faith in the team," said Hamilton to Sky in his reference to what he said over team radio after the chequered flag.

"We can build a great car. We haven't for the past two years but we can build a great car.

"There are a lot of engineers that... no one wants to copy anybody, they want to find their own way. I think we are progressing but I heard Red Bull are progressing as well.

"We have to be really, really strategic and really clinical with moves. They know that already but in order for us to be battling those guys.

"They are so quick on the straight, we were losing two and a half tenths into turn one, but I'm ready. If we can get the car that can match them, we're going to have some great battles next year."

Can Mercedes win again in Brazil this weekend?

Or, to flip that question around, can Verstappen be beaten this weekend? Hmm.

Given the world champion has only once not stood atop an F1 podium at the 15 grands prix to have taken place over the last seven months, victory for anyone other than Max is a tall order at the moment.

But, while not as quirky as Singapore, Interlagos has its own uniqueness in set-up requirements and it certainly wasn't either one of Red Bull or Verstappen's greatest weekends last year (Verstappen had won eight of the nine events beforehand, with Singapore the one he missed out on).

Mercedes impressively cashed in last year and certainly, in the very short term, another late-season victory in the final month of 2023 would certainly act as a winter fillip for all at Brackley and Brixworth.

Look back at some of the most dramatic moments to have taken place at the Sao Paulo Grand Prix.

After all, Mercedes' last winless season in F1 came in 2011, the second year of the manufacturer's return to team ownership.

Three chances - Brazil, Las Vegas and Abu Dhabi - across three very different tracks remain them to avoid an unwanted repeat. So what are their prospects this weekend in the third race for the recent floor upgrade?

"The longer you have the upgrade on the car and you collect data, the better you are going to be able to tune it," said Wolff.

An emotional George Russell says that he drove the race of his life to win his first ever Formula One Grand Prix.

"Now I don't want to set the expectations too high with Brazil because last year it came a little bit as a surprise that we dominated that weekend. So we have to go there knowing we have a good car and if we put all the ducks in one line then I think we can have a very strong weekend.

"Whether it's good enough to beat Max… their package, driver, car, power unit, is just very complete at the moment."

And that, in truth, frames the big question heading towards the off-season and 2024.

Can Mercedes not only simply out-develop Red Bull this winter but out-develop them to such an extent that, as Hamilton remarked recently, they can be "banging on the door", of this year's runaway champion driver and team on the timesheet?

Less than four months before that answer starts to be revealed.

F1 heads straight to Brazil for the final leg of the Americas triple header and the last Sprint weekend of the 2023 season. Watch every session from the Sao Paulo Grand Prix live on Sky Sports F1 from Friday, with Sunday's race at 5pm. Stream F1 on Sky Sports with NOW

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