Where do England turn as they bid to stop Australia in the festive Test? To Tom Curran, reckons Mike Selvey, but not yet Mason Crane…
Boxing Day morning, and the crowds, measured in tens of thousands, will be emerging from Flinders Street Station in Melbourne. Over the road they will stream, forming one long human crocodile making its way across Federation Square, and along the path by the Yarra River, before cutting in through parkland known as Birrarung Marr, the river of mists.
Then comes the William Barak footbridge, constructed in 2005 for the 2006 Commonwealth Games and commemorating an influential 19th-century spokesman for Aboriginal social justice. Listen above the cricket chatter, and as they cross, they will hear ghostly voices, a welcome song in Woiwurrung, the indigenous language of Barak's Wurundjeri people and sung now by his descendants.
Finally it is up through an avenue of trees and on to the concourse of the giant grey edifice that is the Melbourne Cricket Ground, the heaving sold-out "G", towering floodlights scraping the sky, with, to greet the throng, the magnificent bronze of Dennis Lillee in glorious, menacing mid-leap, an image of perfection that should be on every bowling coach's pin board. On a warm, sunny midsummer's day there can be no finer precursor to a sporting event.
The crowds flock for the occasion as much as the cricket, for the Boxing Day Test at the G is an integral part of Melburnian festivities. Certainly, in four of the five series that have taken place since Melbourne was accorded the fourth of the five Tests, it has not been for the thrill of seeing anything but a dead rubber, with England out of it.
In 2002, three massive defeats for Nasser Hussain's team, two by an innings, saw the Ashes retained by Australia in only 11 days of cricket, rubber-stamped by another win in Melbourne.
Four years later, following England's 2005 home win, Australia's task to regain the Ashes had been completed comprehensively in Perth, but 90,000 still turned out to say goodbye to the two bowling giants Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne. The eventual 5-0 whitewash, the first such Ashes result since 1920-21, was Ricky Ponting's revenge.
By Christmas of 2013, it took 13 days of the series for England's Ashes to be been blown away by Mitchell Johnson and Ryan Harris, as a precursor to another whitewash. Now this unfortunate history could repeat itself, England's Christmas goose cooked this time by Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Patrick Cummins.
The only upset came in 2010, when with the series still level, the Melbourne crowd were given one of the most dominating days an England side has ever enjoyed against Australia. Put in to bat by Andrew Strauss, Australia were bowled out by tea for 98, at which point the stadium started to drain of spectators as if a plug had been pulled. Those who left missed the unbroken 157-run opening stand that topped off the first day.
None of this might have occurred however had not David Saker, the England bowling coach then, who as player and then coach for Victoria knew the ground intimately, taken Strauss to one side and informed him with some vigour that unless he chose to field first, against the captain's instinct, the pair would never speak again. His insistence then played a major part in not just retaining but winning the Ashes. Saker is now the Australian assistant head coach, so that will not happen again.
England have dominated sufficient parts of the series to demonstrate that rather than being outclassed they have been outplayed. Australia have won the big points when it mattered most. England, on the other hand, have been unable to build on an initiative gained, with the subsidence of the innings in Perth, from the promising 368-4 to 405 all out just the latest example.
The consistent failure of those with experience of Ashes series in Australia - Alastair Cook, Joe Root (Ponting's "little boy") and Stuart Broad, in particular - makes one wonder whether there are not memories lingering from four years ago. Moeen Ali has had a hideous series all round.
Each of Mark Stoneman, James Vince, and Craig Overton has had promising moments without quite capitalising and, thus far, only Dawid Malan has proved to have not just the technique but the temperament to cope with the Australian attack, which is very good and at the absolute top of its game but by no means stellar.
It is unreasonable, though, to expect the Ashes rookies to lead the way. As a contrast, such has been the overwhelming dominance of Steve Smith with the bat, that those who have been brought into the Australian team, specifically the Marsh brothers, could hardly fail to be pulled along in the slipstream.
England made one slight change to the batting order in Perth and it brought some dividend in the superb 237-run partnership between Malan and Jonny Bairstow that produced centuries for both. But the order, as suggested here for the WACA, needs changing more significantly. The dynamic just looks wrong.
Vince's technique, pleasant enough on the eye but flawed at the top level, is not that of a Test number three, the position that calls for the greatest adaptability. He played elegantly and fluently in the second innings in Perth until receiving a fluke delivery from Mitchell Starc, but the fact that even before the ball deviated wickedly from the pitch all three stumps were visible shows how much the off-side dominates his thinking: in effect, he plays too much of the game with half a bat and the Australians recognise vulnerability.
Malan, on the other hand, seems to have the diligence and technique to take that senior position. Bairstow is a more accomplished player than Vince in any case and should bat at five while Vince could go six, where his more expansive inclinations might be better suited. Beyond that, England really do not have options with their batting.
The conundrum for this Test lies in the balance of the attack. Injury means that Overton will miss the match, and a dreadful run of wicket-taking form from Broad, which may or may not be contingent on a persistent knee problem, puts his place in doubt. How to replace them though?
Following a miserable game with the ball and terrifying one with the bat in Brisbane, Jake Ball was dropped and is unlikely to be considered now. So the other seam options are the uncapped Tom Curran, who joined the touring party when Steve Finn returned home with a knee injury, and Mark Wood, who is not officially in the party but has remained with it following the Lions tour to prepare for the forthcoming white ball series.
Unless Broad is discounted on fitness grounds it is probable that only one of these can play, and with doubts over Wood's ability to withstand a five day Test at the moment, Curran could well be making his Test debut at the MCG.
There will also be consideration given to including the young leg-spinner Mason Crane but shoehorning him in would be tricky. Either he plays instead of a seamer, which would leave the pace bowling light on a ground that has helped England bowlers in the past, or he comes in at the expense of Moeen.
However, this would mean Chris Woakes batting at seven, a fragile option, although given the manner in which the lower order has been capitulating, the disadvantage might be slender compared to the value of the extra bowler: there is a case for just playing the best attack. Curran for Overton may well be the only personnel change from Perth with Crane's chance coming in the final Test in Sydney, where two spinners will be required.
There is scant chance that the Australians will come at England any less hard now that the series is won, so desperate are they to continue the visitors' losing streak in Australia, which now runs to eight games. With England on the ropes, they want another whitewash.
But there could be an enforced change for them, with Starc sustaining a slight bruising to his right heel at the WACA. These things can exacerbate rapidly, and become a long-term problem, so prudence might be the best option. Jackson Bird, a fast-medium seamer, would be the replacement.
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