Ireland and Papua New Guinea have qualified for the T20 World Cup in 2020, but Scotland will need to come through the play-offs in order to reach next year's tournament in Australia.
Ireland won Group B after Oman slipped to a 14-run defeat to Jersey in their final group game to finish behind Gary Wilson's side on net-run rate.
Wilson's men could still have been leapfrogged by Canada or UAE had one team thumped the other but UAE's narrow 14-run victory was nowhere near enough, leaving Ireland celebrating a place at next year's finals.
Papua New Guinea, meanwhile, reached their maiden global tournament by topping Group A, having recovered from 19-6 to beat Kenya by 45 runs and then watched on as Netherlands failed to score 131 in 12.3 overs or less against Scotland to overhaul them on net run-rate.
Scotland did lose to Netherlands, however, to end up fourth in Group A and now face a must-win play-off against the Dutch or UAE on Wednesday, in which a defeat will end their hopes of making the T20 World Cup.
Scotland had laboured to 130-8 with only Matt Cross (52 off 44) starring with the bat as Pieter Seelar (2-12) led a disciplined bowling display.
The Dutch then had an outside chance of reaching their target in 12.3 overs as Ten Doeschate got going, only for Scotland spinner Mark Watt's twin strike in the 11th over to end that bid.
However, Norman Vanua (54) lifted his side to 118 all out before then taking two wickets as Kenya were rolled for 73 in 18.4 overs - Assad Vala (3-7) and Nosaina Pokana (3-21) sharing six scalps in what turned into a vital victory.